Greenback slide resumes on disappointing Fed minutes; Japan’s verbal intervention falling on deaf ears

August 18, 2016

Article by ForexTime

Dollar bulls were clearly uninspired by July’s Federal Reserve’s minutes released on Wednesday as participants remained divided over when to move interest rates.

According to the minutes, “Some participants viewed recent economic developments as indicating that labor market conditions were at or close to those consistent with maximum employment” suggesting that one of the Fed’s mandate is being met and May’s employment report was just an anomaly. However on price stability, the minutes said “Inflation continued to run below the Committee’s 2%longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.” A justification that will continue to be used against rising rates. Meanwhile all members seemed to have agreed that Brexit is no longer creating an imminent threat to the U.S. economy.

Although doors were kept opened for a September rate hike, markets are no longer convinced that monetary tightening will happen any time soon, with terms such as “several, some, and few participants” were all over the release, indicating that there’s a clear division in opinions within the 17 members.

Investors reacted to the Fed minutes by sending the dollar and yields on treasury bonds lower, while U.S. stocks reversed early losses to close slightly higher.The utilities sector leading the S&P 500 rising 1.49% for the day, is another sign of investors disbelieve that a rate hike will happen in September.

The only chance left to prepare markets for tightening next month is Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole monetary policy conference on August 26. However, I believe she will remain on the dovish side.

 

Japan will respond to speculative FX moves

Japanese authorities continued to struggle with the strong Yen, and for the second time this week, Vice Finance Minister of International Affairs intervened verbally by saying they will respond to speculative market moves as needed. However, it seems these verbal interventions are falling on deaf ears with USDJPY falling below 100 key psychological level. Earlier today data showed Japanese imports and exports suffered their biggest monthly fall in 7 years, which is likely to put more pressure on BoJ to take action. I believe the ability of direct intervention in currency markets is quite limited especially after the U.S. issued several warnings against competitive currency devaluations. The central bank which failed to deliver in the past two meetings should prepare something big to convince FX markets on their willingness to implement further aggressive easing measures, or Yen strength will likely resume in the foreseeable future.

 

Aussie benefits from robust employment report

The Australian dollar is the top performing major currency today, rising by more than 0.8% against the dollar. The commodity linked currency received a boost from today’s Australian labor report showing that the economy added 26,200 jobs in July, versus expectations of 11,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 5.7%, indicating that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep monetary policy unchanged in the next two meetings. Commodity currencies are also benefiting from higher oil prices with Brent approaching the $50 benchmark for the first time since late June.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com