Yesterdays moves from the NZ economy came as no surprise with the rate cut of 25 basis points to 2.00%, and the NZDUSD jumped higher in the wake of it all, but has so far looked to retreat now as investors look to shift elsewhere. Graham wheeler quipped that before his conference yesterday that “anyone could take his role” at present as he felt unable to control the NZD given the current global climate of negative or bottom interest rates, and for the RBNZ it looks like there may be further pressure in the long run to put pressure back on interest rates if the NZD continues to remain relatively high compared to its major trading partners. But, it’s not all bad news as the recent retail sales figures through shortly showed a jump for the quarter lifting to 2.3% (0.9% exp). This jump will be a positive sign that despite the recent slowdown in the economy consumers are still confident and spending in the short to medium term.

The NZDUSD has so far failed to break through resistance from yesterday at 0.7311, and after a brief attempt it pushed back down the charts as traders looked to take profit and also put pressure back on the NZDUSD in the wake of a stronger USD. Any major falls are likely to find stiff support at 0.7163 and 0.7046, further down from this and the 100 and 200 day moving average are looking very strong as well and will likely be key exit points for any traders looking for a strong technical exit. However, in the long run it may take some time given the so far bullish trend the dollar has encountered and also how keen fixed interest markets are to chase yield in commodity currencies with the rest of the world lacking.

Gold bulls have so far had a good run, but the market has been moving rapidly between levels after the recent dovish comments from the FED in previous weeks and also some positive US data which has thrown back out the possibility of a rate rise further down the line. The climb higher has also been on the back of a weaker USD, but that is also looking to change. For me gold remains a bogie man for the markets with no real direction in the short term, but a long term bullish trend that has so far remained consistent. But it’s reactions to data have been somewhat more interesting and many traders may be treating it as a political hedge at present given the worries in the US political arena.

At present gold has strong resistance above it at 1358 and this level is likely to hold unless we see a shock data scenario in the services sector or labour market. Support is also looking quite tough at 1323 as the gold market looks to slip a little lower. Between these two levels it’s likely we will see long wicks as traders look to find technical holes to strike and play off with the gold bugs.