Markets reverse as a pro-Remain politician is murdered in Britain

June 17, 2016

By IFCMarkets

US stocks were advancing in Thursday as the murder of British lawmaker put a hold on Brexit campaigning. US dollar index, a measure of a greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.1% (see US dollar index live). S&P 500 index snapped a 5-day losing streak on Thursday gaining 0.31% to 2,077.99. Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.53% to 17,733.1 while Nasdaq added 0.21% to 4,844.92. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday at press-conference following the Fed two-day meeting that the decision to leave the rates unchanged was supported by Brexit concerns. She added the vote against EU membership may lead to “consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets”. Today at 14:30 CEST the May housing starts and building permits will be released, the tentative outlook for both is quite negative. At 19:00 CEST the Baker Hughes oil rigs count will be released.

European stocks retreated on Thursday as Brexit worries intensified and central banks were reluctant to hike rates in the foreseeable future. UK’s FTSE 100 lost 0.83%, German Dax 30 index fell 1.27% and French CAC 40 dipped 0.93%. EURUSD edged lower 0.94% to 1.1151. STOXX EUROPE 600 and FTSEurofirst indices were near 4-month lows having lost 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. Deutsche Bank dipped 2.2% to its historical low. UBS and Credit Suisse stocks lost more than 2% as Swiss National Bank said the banks may need to raise capital by extra 10bn Swiss francs ($10.4bn) to meet new leverage requirements. By the way, SNB left the interest rates unchanged. Banking sector has gloomy prospects on tighter regulation, longer period of low rates and slower economic growth. Pan-European bank sector index was one of the bottom performers having lost 2.8% to its lowest since August 2012. Today, on Friday, European indices opened up after three weeks of losses as campaigning for Thursday’s referendum on Brexit was suspended after a murder of British lawmaker yesterday. The news shocked the markets and seemed to ease the Brexit worries. European markets rebounded almost 3% from the lows hit on Thursday. Today at 10:00 CEST the positive current account data came out. At 13:45 CEST the ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure speaks in Berlin. At 17:00 CEST the ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Munich.

Asian stocks were edging higher on Friday although failed to recover from this week’s losses as investors rushed into safe-haven assets on Brexit fears. The China’s CSI 300 index added 0.5% on Friday while Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% while still closed the week 1.7% and 1.5% lower respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.5% while Japanese Nikkei added 1.1%. Still, the Japanese index closed this week 6% lower pushed down by the BoJ decision to introduce no additional stimulus to the economy. The market participants are worried by inaction of Bank of Japan which seems to run out of options to counter stronger yen. Nevertheless, the Japan’s finance minister Taro Aso claimed on Friday he would respond if necessary to the one-sided speculative moves in the currency market. USDJPY was traded at 104.23 yen having touched this week the lowest since August 2014 at 103.555.

Oil futures prices went on looking down with Brent crude falling 3.6% to $47.19 a barrel and US crude losing 3.8% to $46.21. This week Brent oil fell about $5 a barrel, or 10%.

Gold is advancing as Fed is not in rush to hike the rates and Brexit concerns undermine investors confidence. Gold closed 0.4% higher at $1,283.33 an ounce having reached an almost 2-year high of $1,315.55 intraday but later retreated 2.8% from this high as the chances rose that Britain will remain in EU.


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