Before we look ahead to next week, let’s briefly recap the major headlines for the week ending January 29. It was a busy one on the central bank front.

The FOMC kept rates on hold at 0.5% and told us in their policy statement that they would be ‘monitoring closely’ global financial conditions. They reiterated that the path of tightening would be gradual and incoming economic data would be closely watched to determine the timing of the next rate increase. Overall, the central bank had a slightly dovish tone.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept their rates on hold at 2.5%, but due to extremely low inflation mostly in part to falling energy prices they may take additional measures to ease monetary conditions in the next year. Concerns over emerging markets and China were also expressed, along with the CB’s belief their currency needs to depreciate more.

The big surprise of the week was the BoJ announcing on Friday that they would take interest rates negative to a rate of -0.1% on new deposits. However, the majority of deposits will still bear interest at the barely positive rate of 0.1%. The bank kept its pace for its purchases of bond and risky assets steady at 80 trillion yen per year. They did indicate that rates could decline further in the red if they see the need to do so. Low inflation, as it is in most parts of the globe, continues to be a major concern.

Major events to watch next week (*All events in GMT time)

Monday

To kick off the week early Monday morning, at 1:00 China will produce Manufacturing PMI figures for the month of January. Analyst are forecasting a reading of 49.6, down slightly from 49.7 seen in December.

In the US, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (YoY) for December are due out at 13:30. The November reading was 1.3%. This is a widely watched figure as the Fed focuses on Core PCE versus the more volatile Consumer Price Index (CPI).
At 15:00, US ISM Manufacturing figures for January are to be released with expectations of 48.5, a slight uptick from 48.2 in December.

Tuesday

At 3:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their decision on rates. Expectations are for the RBA to keep rates at 2%, however, they too could like the RBNZ signal further easing measures ahead. Australia is highly levered to China through exports, and as such, this makes them particularly vulnerable to the slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Later in the morning at 8:55 Germany will report its employment situation. Analyst estimates call for an Employment Change of -10%, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 6.3%.

At 21:45, New Zealand is slated to announce their employment situation as well. No estimates are currently available. The third quarter report showed a 6% Unemployment Rate and Employment Change of -0.4%.

Wednesday

At 2:30, BoJ Governor Kuroda is set to give a speech. Given Friday’s developments, traders will be on their toes as they listen.

At 15:00, we will get a look at the state of the US non-manufacturing sector in January via the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index. Analyst expectations are for 55.3, in line with the December figure.

Thursday

ECB President Mario Draghi is set to speak at 8:00. Perhaps he will shed more light on future policy plans as many in the market believe the ECB will make its next move in March.

Super Thursday: At 12:00 the BoE will release its decision on interest rates, Asset Purchase Target, and Quarterly Inflation Report. Rates are almost certain to be held at 0.5% with the APT to remain at 375 billion pounds. The policy statement and inflation report could be the market mover.

Friday

At 13:30, the US will release figures surrounding its job situation. Non-farm Payrolls are expected to show the US economy added 210k jobs during January. The market will also be watching for any revisions made to the prior month’s figure of 292k. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at a low 5%. The US jobs report is the single most consistent market mover, generally garnering large swings in the FX market.

Canada releases its employment data at the same time as the US. No estimates available at this time. The prior month’s Unemployment Rate was 7.1% with a Net Change in Employment of 22.8k.

Written by Paul Rosenberg, analyst for www.EconomicCalendar.com

Original Source: http://www.economiccalendar.com/2016/01/29/next-weeks-major-events-rba-boe-us-nfp-more-on-the-docket/