FX Speculators trim bullish US Dollar positions to lowest since July 2014

October 18, 2015

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

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US Dollar net speculator positions fell last week to +$18.97 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly reduced their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week for a second straight week and brought the net bullish level to under the $20 billion level for the first time since 2014.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $18.97 billion as of Tuesday October 13th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.92 billion from the $20.89 billion total long position that was registered on October 6th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Last week’s data brings the US dollar speculative level to the lowest level since July 22nd of 2014 when net positions stood at $14.12 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro,  Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for just the British pound sterling.


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This latest COT data is through Tuesday October 13th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
201509083831871920710844520102-81241-13384
20150915311366-71821102410-6035-84202-2961
201509223154504084102114-296-810333169
2015092932272172711120669952-87660-6627
2015100633760614885108507-3559-88810-1150
201510133497201211497015-11492-805768234

 

British Pound Sterling:

GBP-Brit-Pound-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20150908186994169623090814236-17638-6399
20150915145704-4129013699-17209-361914019
201509221465738695006-869312674886
201509291558219248114146408-2047-3314
201510061603734552188887474-4533-2486
20151013152164-8209225193631-7527-2994

 

Japanese Yen:

Japanese-Yen-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20150908279712650721012-7491-66628893
20150915166081-1136313955918547-26814-20152
201509221774391135831587-7972-236783136
20150929174697-274232538951-220521626
20151006170780-391730758-1780-175994453
20151013169873-90721756-9002-138323767

 

Swiss Franc:

CHF-Swiss-Franc-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2015090840937473418400976-68961607
2015091537846-30917608-10792378210678
2015092236981-865119004292-1876-5658
20150929382291248141752275-2715-839
201510063882659715159984-3970-1255
2015101334934-389211951-3208-23521618

 

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20150908159492-240168580-7994-486406479
201509151880432855169332752-470831557
20150922136213-5183057613-11719-383948689
201509291394313218628915278-42235-3841
20151006121676-1775551546-11345-350107225
20151013116800-487644722-6824-339491061

 

Australian Dollar:

Australian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2015090819076116814846841889-533162416
20150915156879-3388266468-18216-4072912587
20150922147279-9600759719503-52832-12103
20150929142869-441069579-6392-488653967
20151006139935-293462785-6794-408398026
20151013142024208947727-15058-337057134

 

New Zealand Dollar:

NewZealand-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20150908383253986156803415-11820-3541
2015091533352-49735761-9919-20949726
2015092235920256878402079-3529-1435
2015092934105-18156947-893-3062467
2015100631930-21755434-1513-9712091
2015101329038-28922836-25986921663

 

Mexican Peso:

Mexican-Peso-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20150908188237-278275711-6892-709515986
20150915130555-5768260227-15484-5528515666
20150922126544-401117119-43108-1235642929
20150929142517159734769630577-44451-32095
20151006119424-230939108-38588-524339208
20151013116418-30067314-1794-41431100

 

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

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