May 22, 2020
India’s central bank cut its benchmark repo rate for the second time this year and for the 7th time in 15 months at a surprise monetary policy meeting and said it would “continue with the accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its repo rate by 40 basis points to 4.0 percent and has now cut it by 115 points this year following the first cut on March 27.
“The recent release of macroeconomic data, that for the first tine revealed the damage wrought by COVID-19, brought forward the need for an off-cycle meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) in lieu of the scheduled meeting during June 3-5, 2020,” said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Since February 2019, when the RBI began easing its policy to boost the economy in response to slowing global growth, the repo rate has been cut seven times and by a total of 250 basis points.
RBI today also lowered its reverse repo rate by 40 basis points to 3.35 percent and has now cut it by 155 points this year.
At the previous policy meeting on April 17 the repo rate was maintained but the reverse repo rate was cut by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to encourage banks to deploy a surplus of liquidity in the banking system to businesses following large injections by itself and the government.
“The MPC is of the view that the macroeconomic impact of the pandemic is turning out to be more severe than initially anticipated, and various sectors of the economy are experiencing acute stress” from the lockdown over the past two months, RBI said, adding:
“High frequency indicators point to a collapse in demand beginning March 2020 across both urban and rural segments.”
RBI pointed to a plunge in electricity consumption while investment activity and private consumption have “suffered precipitous declines” that is reflected in a “collapse” in capital goods production and a large retrenchment in the output of consumer durable and non-durables.
Private consumption accounts for some 60 percent of domestic demand and the production of consumer durables fell 33 percent in March and the output of non-durables 16 percent, Das said, adding industrial production shrank close to 17 percent in March, with manufacturing down 21 percent.
India’s exports suffered their worst slump in the last 30 years as the virus paralyzed world proaction and demand, with merchandise exports down 60.3 percent in April and imports contracted 58.6 percent.
Agriculture provides the only silver lining, with summer sowing of rise, pulses and oilseeds progressing well and total area sown up by 43.5 percent in the current season while the winter season promises to be a number year, RBI said.
Even though India’s government may lift the lockdown by the end of May, RBI said economic activity, apart from agriculture, is likely to remain depressed in the first quarter of the current 2020-21 year, which began April 1, and may remain subdued in the second quarter due to social distancing measures and the temporary shortage of labour.
Although there is heightened uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and how long measures remain in place, RBI expects the economy to begin recovering in the third quarter and then gain momentum in the fourth quarter as supply lines are restored to normalcy and demand gradually revives.
“On the other hand, upside impulses could be unleashed if the pandemic is contained, and social distancing measures are phase out faster,” RBI said.
Economic growth in the current fiscal year is estimated to remain negative.
The outlook for inflation also remains uncertain but the usual spike in food inflation in April is expected to be moderate and the forecast for a normal monsoon season also portends well.
Together with low prices for oil, metals and other industrial raw materials, input costs for domestic firms will remain low and deficient demand will restrain upward pressure on core inflation.
RBI said it expects headline inflation in the third and fourth quarters of 2020-21 to remain below its target of 4.0 percent. In March India’s headline inflation eased to 5.84 percent.
In addition to past rate cuts, injection of liquidity in both rupees and foreign exchange to keep the financial system and markets functioning, RBI today announced additional measures to support exports and imports, improve the functioning of markets, ease financial stress and constraints faced by state governments.
The Reserve Bank of India released the following monetary policy statement and a statement by its governor, Shaktikanta Das:
“On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its meeting today (May 22, 2020) decided to:
- reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 40 bps to 4.0 per cent from 4.40 per cent with immediate effect;
- accordingly, the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stand reduced to 4.25 per cent from 4.65 per cent; and
- the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands reduced to 3.35 per cent from 3.75 per cent.
- The MPC also decided to continue with the accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target.
These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.
The main considerations underlying the decision are set out in the statement below.
Assessment
Global Economy
2. Since the MPC met in March 2020, global economic activity has remained in standstill under COVID-19 related lockdowns and social distancing. Among the key advanced economies (AEs), economic activity contracted in the US, Euro area, Japan and the UK in Q1:2020. Among emerging market economies (EMEs), the Chinese economy went into a pronounced decline and data on high frequency indicators suggest that activity may have also shrunk in other EMEs such as Brazil and South Africa.
3. Global financial markets calmed after a turbulent period in March, and volatility ebbed as swift and large fiscal and monetary policy responses helped to soothe sentiment. Equity markets recovered some lost ground, while government bond yields remained range-bound, although somewhat elevated in some EMEs due to country-specific factors. Portfolio flows to EMEs revived in April and the rush to safe havens eased. With the US dollar weakening, major EME currencies, which had experienced persistent downward pressure, traded with an appreciating bias. Crude oil prices firmed up modestly as oil producing countries (OPEC plus) agreed to cut production, and prospects for revival in demand improved on expectations of imminent easing of lockdowns. Gold prices remained elevated on hedging demand. CPI inflation remained subdued across major AEs and EMEs primarily due to a collapse in oil prices and compression in demand amidst lockdowns, while food inflation picked up due to supply disruptions.
Domestic Economy
4. Domestic economic activity has been impacted severely by the lockdown which has extended over the past two months. High frequency indicators point to a collapse in demand beginning March 2020 across both urban and rural segments. Electricity consumption has plunged, while both investment activity and private consumption suffered precipitous declines, as reflected in the collapse in capital goods production and the large retrenchment in the output of consumer durables and non-durables in March. High frequency indicators of service sector activity such as passenger and commercial vehicle sales, domestic air passenger traffic and foreign tourist arrivals also experienced sizable contractions in March. The only silver lining was provided by agriculture, with the summer sowing of rice, pulses and oilseeds in the country progressing well, with total area sown under the current kharif season up by 43.5 per cent so far, and the rabi harvest promising to be a bumper as reflected in record procurement.
5. Retail inflation, measured by the consumer price index, moderated for the second consecutive month in March 2020 to 5.8 per cent after peaking in January. This was mainly due to food inflation easing from double digits in December 2019 – January 2020. In April, however, supply disruptions took a toll and reversed the softening of food inflation, which surged to 8.6 per cent from 7.8 per cent in March. Prices of vegetables, cereals, milk, pulses and edible oils and sugar emerged as pressure points1.
6. The Reserve Bank remained in pro-active liquidity management mode, expanding its array of measures, both conventional and unconventional, to augment system-level liquidity as also to channel liquidity to specific sectors facing funding constraints. Systemic liquidity remained in abundance, with average daily net absorptions under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) increasing to ₹5.66 lakh crore in May 2020 (up to May 20) from ₹4.75 lakh crore in April. During 2020-21 (up to May 20), ₹1,20,474 crore was injected through open market operation (OMO) purchases and ₹87,891 crore through three targeted long-term repo operation (TLTRO) auctions and one TLTRO 2.0 auction. In order to distribute liquidity more evenly across the yield curve, the Reserve Bank conducted one ‘operation twist’ auction involving the simultaneous sale and purchase of government securities for ₹10,000 crore each on April 27, 2020. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank has provided ₹22,334 crore as refinance to National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) and National Housing Bank (NHB) so far (as on May 21, 2020) and ₹2,430 crore to mutual funds through a special liquidity facility (SLF) with a view to easing liquidity constraints and de-stress financial markets. Since February 6, 2020 the Reserve Bank has announced liquidity augmenting measures of ₹9.42 lakh crore (4.6 per cent of GDP).
7. Reflecting the various liquidity management measures, domestic financial conditions have eased appreciably as reflected in the narrowing of liquidity premia in various market segments. Yields on government securities, commercial paper (CP), 91-day treasury bills, certificates of deposit (CDs) and corporate bonds have softened. The weighted average lending rates on fresh rupee loans of commercial banks declined by 43 bps in March 2020 alone. Though credit growth remains muted, scheduled commercial banks’ investments in commercial paper, bonds, debentures and shares of corporate bodies in this year so far (up to May 8) increased sharply by ₹66,757 crore as against a decline of ₹8,822 crore during the same period last year. There were net inflows into various schemes of mutual funds in April in contrast to large outflows in March.
8. In the external sector, India’s merchandise trade slumped in April 2020, with exports shrinking by 60.3 per cent and imports by 58.6 per cent (y-o-y), respectively. While imports contracted in all 30 commodity groups in April, exports contracted in 28 out of 30 groups. The trade deficit narrowed in April 2020 – both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis – to its lowest level in 47 months. On the financing side, net foreign direct investment inflows picked up in March 2020 to US$ 2.9 billion from US$ 0.8 billion a year ago. In 2020-21 so far (till May 18), net foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in equities increased to US$ 1.2 billion from US$ 0.8 billion a year ago. In the debt segment, however, there were portfolio outflows of US$ 3.8 billion during the same period as compared with outflows of US$ 1.4 billion a year ago. By contrast, net investment under the voluntary retention route increased by US$ 0.7 billion during the same period. India’s foreign exchange reserves have increased by US$ 9.2 billion in 2020-21 so far (up to May 15) to US$ 487.0 billion – equivalent to 12 months of imports.
Outlook
9. The inflation outlook is highly uncertain. As supply lines get restored in the coming months with gradual relaxations in the lockdown, the unusual spike in food inflation in April is expected to moderate. The forecast of a normal monsoon also portends well for food inflation. Given the current global demand-supply balance, international crude oil prices are likely to remain low although they may firm up from the recent depressed levels. Soft global prices of metals and other industrial raw materials are likely to keep input costs low for domestic firms. Deficient demand may hold down pressures on core inflation (excluding food and fuel), although persisting supply dislocations impart uncertainty to the near term outlook. However, volatility in financial markets could have a bearing on inflation. These factors, combined with favourable base effects, are expected to take effect and pull down headline inflation below target in Q3 and Q4 of 2020-21.
10. Turning to the growth outlook, economic activity other than agriculture is likely to remain depressed in Q1:2020-21 in view of the extended lockdown. Even though the lockdown may be lifted by end-May with some restrictions, economic activity even in Q2 may remain subdued due to social distancing measures and the temporary shortage of labour. Recovery in economic activity is expected to begin in Q3 and gain momentum in Q4 as supply lines are gradually restored to normalcy and demand gradually revives. For the year as a whole, there is still heightened uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and how long social distancing measures are likely to remain in place and consequently, downside risks to domestic growth remain significant. On the other hand, upside impulses could be unleashed if the pandemic is contained, and social distancing measures are phased out faster.
11. The MPC is of the view that the macroeconomic impact of the pandemic is turning out to be more severe than initially anticipated, and various sectors of the economy are experiencing acute stress. The impact of the shock has been compounded by the interaction of supply disruptions and demand compression. Beyond the destruction of economic and financial activity, livelihood and health are severely affected. Even as various measures initiated by the Government and the Reserve Bank work to mitigate the adverse impact of the pandemic on the economy, it is necessary to ease financial conditions further. This will facilitate the flow of funds at affordable rates and revive animal spirits. With the inflation outlook remaining benign as lockdown-related supply disruptions are mended, the policy space to address growth concerns needs to be used now rather than later to support the economy, even while maintaining headroom to back up the revival of activity when it takes hold.
12. Accordingly, all members voted for a reduction in the policy repo rate and maintaining the accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target.
13. Dr. Pami Dua, Dr. Ravindra H. Dholakia, Dr. Janak Raj, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra and Shri Shaktikanta Das voted for a reduction in the policy repo rate by 40 bps, while Dr. Chetan Ghate voted for a reduction by 25 bps.
14. The minutes of the MPC’s meeting will be published by June 5, 2020.”
Governor’s statement:
“”It is when the horizon is the darkest and human reason is beaten down to the ground that faith shines brightest and comes to our rescue.”1
As a nation we must have faith in India’s resilience and capacity to overcome all odds. COVID-19, a virus of the size of 0.12 microns, has crippled the global economy, with more than 300,000 dead and economic activity across the world stalled. Once again, central banks have to answer the call to the frontline in defence of the economy.
2. The recent release of macroeconomic data, that for the first time revealed the damage wrought by COVID-19, brought forward the need for an off-cycle meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) in lieu of the scheduled meeting during June 3 to 5, 2020. Over the last three days, i.e., 20th, 21st and 22nd May 2020, the MPC reviewed domestic and global developments and their implications for the outlook. After extensive discussions, the MPC voted unanimously for a reduction in the policy repo rate and for maintaining the accommodative stance of monetary policy as long as necessary to revive growth, mitigate the impact of COVID-19, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target. On the quantum of reduction, the MPC voted with a 5-1 majority to reduce the policy rate by 40 basis points from 4.4 per cent to 4.0 per cent. Consequently, the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank rate stand reduced to 4.25% from 4.65%. The reverse repo rate stands reduced to 3.35% from 3.75%.
3. Before I lay out the backdrop, the rationale and expected outcomes of the MPC’s decision, I wish to thank the Committee members for their valuable contributions to the work of the Committee in the monetary policy decision taken today. I would also like to thank my colleagues in the RBI who have been working tirelessly in our fight against COVID-19. My gratitude goes out to our teams for their intellectual support, analytical work and logistical arrangements. A special word of praise for our team of over 200 officers, staff and service providers who are working unstinted 24X7 in isolation in order to keep essential RBI services available to the nation. I wish to express our admiration for doctors, healthcare and medical staff, police and law enforcement agencies, functionaries and personnel in the government, the private sector, banks and other financial institutions who have risen to the call of duty, day after day, through the pandemic to ensure continuity in the provision of all essential services. Our deepest gratitude to their families too.
I. Assessment
4. By all counts, the macroeconomic and financial conditions are austere. The global economy is inexorably headed into recession. The global manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) contracted to an 11-year low in April 2020. The global services PMI recorded its steepest decline in the history of the index. Among advanced economies (AEs) that have released GDP readings for Q1: 2020, contractions were in the range of 3.4 per cent to 14.2 per cent (q-o-q, annualised); for emerging market economies (EMEs), the growth rate ranged between 2.9 per cent and (-) 6.8 per cent (year on year basis). EMEs face additional pressures in the form of capital outflows and asset price volatility from the bouts of turbulence afflicting financial markets. The plunge in crude prices has dried up budgetary revenues for oil exporters; on the other hand, oil importers have been denied terms of trade gains by the crushing blow to demand delivered by the pandemic. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the value of global trade contracted by 3.0 per cent in Q1:2020. The volume of world trade can shrink by 13-32 per cent in 2020, as projected by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). World services trade deteriorated in the first quarter of 2020 due to a broad-based loss of momentum in passenger air travel, container shipping, financial and ICT services. While commodity prices have eased on large demand shocks amidst widespread lockdowns, food price pressures are visible in inflation prints due to supply disruptions, especially in countries where food is a prominent item of households’ consumption expenditure. Global financial markets have calmed after a turbulent period in March, and volatility has ebbed; but markets have generally been disconnected from real economy developments.
5. Relatively unsung, the global policy response by central banks and governments has been unprecedented.
6. Let me now turn to domestic developments. Domestic economic activity has been impacted severely by the 2 months lockdown. The top 6 industrialised states that account for about 60 per cent of industrial output are largely in red or orange zones. High frequency indicators point to a collapse in demand beginning in March 2020 across both urban and rural segments. Electricity and petroleum products consumption – indicators of day to day demand – have plunged into steep declines. The double whammy in terms of losses of both demand and production has, in turn, taken its toll on fiscal revenues. Investment demand has been virtually halted by a decline of 36 per cent in the production of capital goods in March, which was coincident with a contraction of 27 per cent in imports of capital goods in March and 57.5 per cent in April. This is also evident in a fall of 91 per cent in finished steel consumption in April and a 25 per cent shrinkage in cement production in March. The biggest blow from COVID-19 has been to private consumption, which accounts for about 60 per cent of domestic demand. The production of consumer durables fell by 33 per cent in March 2020, accompanied by a 16 per cent decline in the output of non-durables. Similar indications are reflected in surveys of the fast moving consumer goods space.
7. In the production sectors, industrial production shrank by close to 17 per cent in March 2020, with manufacturing activity down by 21 per cent. The output of core industries, which constitutes about 40 per cent of overall industrial production, contracted by 6.5 per cent. The manufacturing PMI for April recorded its sharpest deterioration to 27.4, spread across all sectors. The services PMI plunged to an all all-time low of 5.4 in April 2020.
8. Amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record (as per the third advance estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture released on May 15, 2020). A ray of hope also comes from the forecast of a normal southwest monsoon in 2020 by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). By May 10, 2020 up to which latest information is available, kharif sowing was higher by 44 per cent over last year’s acreage. Rabi procurement is in full flow in respect of oilseeds, pulses and wheat, benefiting from the bumper harvest. These developments will support farm incomes, improve the terms of trade facing the farm sector and strengthen food security for the country. Going forward, these would also have a salutary effect on food price pressures.
9. The inflation outlook has become complicated by the release of partial information on the consumer price index (CPI) by the National Statistical Office(NSO), obscuring a comprehensive assessment of the price situation. From the incomplete data that have been made available, food inflation, which had eased from its January 2020 peak for the second successive month in March, suddenly reversed and surged to 8.6 per cent in April as supply disruptions took their toll, immune to the ongoing demand compression. Prices of vegetables, pulses, edible oils, milk and cereals emerged as pressure points.2
10. In the external sector, India’s merchandise exports and imports suffered their worst slump in the last 30 years as COVID-19 paralysed world production and demand. India’s merchandise exports plunged by 60.3 per cent in April 2020 while imports contracted by 58.6 per cent. The trade deficit narrowed to US$ 6.8 billion in April 2020, lowest since June 2016. On the financing side, net foreign direct investment inflows picked up in March 2020 to US$ 2.9 billion from US$ 0.8 billion a year ago. In 2020-21 so far (till May 18), net foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in equities has also increased to US$ 1.2 billion from US$ 0.8 billion a year ago. In the debt segment, however, there were portfolio outflows of US$ 3.8 billion during the same period as against outflows of US$ 1.4 billion a year ago. By contrast, net investment under the voluntary retention route increased by US$ 0.7 billion during the same period. India’s foreign exchange reserves have increased by US$ 9.2 billion in 2020-21 so far (up to May 15) to US$ 487.0 billion – equivalent to a year’s imports.
II. Outlook
11. Against this backdrop, the MPC assessed that the inflation outlook is highly uncertain. The supply shock to food prices in April may show persistence over the next few months, depending upon the state of lockdown and the time taken to restore supply chains after relaxation. Among the pressure points, the elevated level of pulses inflation is worrisome, and warrants timely and swift supply management interventions, including a reappraisal of import duties. Immediate step-up of open market sales/PDS-offtake by the FCI to offload some part of excess stocks can cool down cereal prices and also create room for rabi procurement. Given the current global demand-supply balance, international crude oil prices, metals and industrial raw material prices are likely to remain soft. This would ease input costs for domestic firms. Deficient demand may hold down pressures on core inflation, although persisting supply dislocations impart uncertainty to the near term outlook. Much will depend on the shape of the recovery after COVID. Accordingly, the MPC is of the view that headline inflation may remain firm in the first half of 2020-21, but should ease in the second half, aided also by favourable base effects. By Q3 and Q4 of FY20-21, it is expected to fall below target. Thus, the MPC’s forward guidance on inflation is directional rather than in terms of levels. Going forward, as and when more data are available, it should be possible to estimate the path of inflation with greater certainty.
12. It is in the growth outlook that the MPC judged the risks to be gravest. The combined impact of demand compression and supply disruption will depress economic activity in the first half of the year. Assuming that economic activity gets restored in a phased manner, especially in the second half of this year, and taking into consideration favourable base effects, it is expected that the combination of fiscal, monetary and administrative measures being currently undertaken would create conditions for a gradual revival in activity in the second half of 2020-21. Nonetheless, downside risks to this assessment are significant and contingent upon the containment of the pandemic and quick phasing out of social distancing/lockdowns. Given all these uncertainties, GDP growth in 2020-21 is estimated to remain in negative territory, with some pick-up in growth impulses from H2: 2020-21 onwards. The end-May 2020 release of NSO on national income should provide greater clarity, enabling more specific projections of GDP growth in terms of both magnitude and direction. Much will depend on how quickly the COVID curve flattens and begins to moderate. As the nation prepares for this future, the words of Mahatma Gandhi should inspire us to fight on: “We may stumble and fall, but shall rise again…….”3
13. The MPC is of the view that that the macroeconomic impact of the pandemic is turning out to be more severe than initially anticipated. Beyond the destruction of economic and financial activity, livelihood and health are severely affected. Judging that the risks to growth are acute, while the risks to inflation are likely to be short-lived, the MPC believes that it is essential now to instil confidence and ease financial conditions further. This will facilitate the flow of funds at affordable rates and rekindle investment impulses. It is in this context that the MPC voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 40 basis points from 4.4 per cent to 4.0 per cent. If the inflation trajectory evolves as expected, more space will open up to address the risks to growth.
III. Regulatory and Developmental Measures
14. I now turn to the various regulatory and developmental measures being announced today to complement and amplify the reduction in the policy rate decided by the MPC. While doing so, let me spend a little time on the policy actions already taken by the RBI, their rationale and their likely impact. In my statement at the time of the MPC’s meeting in February 2020, I had pointed out the increasing downside risks to global growth in the context of the outbreak of the coronavirus, the full effects of which were still uncertain and unfolding. Since then, the RBI has pro-actively managed liquidity conditions, expanding its array of measures, both conventional and unconventional – to augment system-level liquidity, both in rupees and forex, as also to channel liquidity to specific sectors facing funding constraints. These liquidity measures are intended to keep the financial system and financial markets functioning as normally as possible under the circumstances so that financial conditions do not freeze up.
15. In the meantime, monetary policy transmission to banks’ lending rates has continued to improve. The 1 year median marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) declined by 90 bps (February 2019-May 15, 2020). The weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans has cumulatively declined by 114 bps since February 2019, of which 43 bps decline occurred in March 2020 alone. The WALR on outstanding rupee loans declined by 29 bps during October 2019-March 2020. Domestic financial conditions have also eased as reflected in the narrowing of liquidity premia in various market segments. After April 17th when I last spoke to you, interest rates on 3-month CPs, 3-month CDs, 5-year AAA corporate bonds, 91-day Treasury Bills, 5-year and benchmark 10-year government paper have softened by 220 bps, 108 bps, 48 bps, 71 bps, 59 bps and 66 bps, respectively, by May 15, 2020.
16. The decision of the MPC to reduce the policy repo rate and maintain the accommodative stance of monetary policy provides the opportunity for the RBI to announce certain additional measures against the backdrop of a deteriorating outlook for economic activity. These policy actions complement and strengthen each other in intent and reach. The measures being announced today can be broadly delineated under four categories:
(A) measures to improve the functioning of markets and market participants;
(B) measures to support exports and imports;
(C) efforts to further ease financial stress caused by COVID-19 disruptions by providing relief on debt servicing and improving access to working capital; and
(D) steps to ease financial constraints faced by state governments.
(A) Measures to Improve the Functioning of Markets
Refinancing Facility for Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI)
17. The RBI had earlier announced a special refinance facility of ₹15,000 crore to SIDBI at RBI’s policy repo rate for a period of 90 days for on-lending/refinancing. In order to provide greater flexibility to SIDBI, it has been decided to roll over the facility at the end of the 90th day for another period of 90 days.
Investments by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) under the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR)
18. Since its introduction, the VRR scheme has evinced strong investor participation, with investments exceeding 90 per cent of the limits allotted under the scheme. In view of difficulties expressed by FPIs and their custodians on account of COVID-19 related disruptions in adhering to the condition that at least 75 per cent of allotted limits be invested within three months, it has been decided that an additional three months time will be allowed to FPIs to fulfil this requirement.
(B) Measures to Support Exports and Imports
19. The deepening of the contraction in global activity and trade, accentuated by the rapid spread of COVID-19, has crippled external demand. In turn, this has impacted India’s exports and imports, both of which have contracted sharply in recent months. In view of the importance of exports and imports to the economy certain measures are being taken to support the foreign trade sector.
Export Credit
20. In order to alleviate genuine difficulties being faced by exporters in their production and realisation cycles, it has been decided to increase the maximum permissible period of pre-shipment and post-shipment export credit sanctioned by banks from the existing one year to 15 months, for disbursements made up to July 31, 2020.
Liquidity Facility for Exim Bank of India
21. In order to enable EXIM bank to meet its foreign currency resource requirements, it has been decided to extend a line of credit of ₹15,000 crore to the EXIM Bank for a period of 90 days (with rollover up to one year) so as to enable it to avail a US dollar swap facility.
Extension of Time for Payment for Imports
22. With a view to providing greater flexibility to importers in managing their operating cycles in a COVID-19 environment, it has been decided to extend the time period for completion of outward remittances against normal imports (i.e. excluding import of gold/diamonds and precious stones/jewellery) into India from six months to twelve months from the date of shipment for such imports made on or before July 31, 2020.
(C) Measures to Ease Financial Stress
23. The RBI had earlier, on two separate occasions (March 27 and April 17, 2020), announced certain regulatory measures pertaining to (a) granting of 3 months moratorium on term loan installments; (b) deferment of interest for 3 months on working capital facilities; (c) easing of working capital financing requirements by reducing margins or reassessment of working capital cycle; (d) exemption from being classified as ‘defaulter’ in supervisory reporting and reporting to credit information companies; (e) extension of resolution timelines for stressed assets; and (f) asset classification standstill by excluding the moratorium period of 3 months, etc. by lending institutions.
24. In view of the extension of the lockdown and continuing disruptions on account of COVID-19, the above measures are being extended by another three months from June 1, 2020 till August 31, 2020 taking the total period of applicability of the measures to six months (i.e. from March 1, 2020 to August 31, 2020). The lending institutions are being permitted to restore the margins for working capital to their original levels by March 31, 2021. Similarly, the measures pertaining to reassessment of working capital cycle are being extended up to March 31, 2021.
25. Additionally, it has been decided to permit lending institutions to convert the accumulated interest on working capital facilities over the total deferment period of 6 months (i.e. March 1, 2020 up to August 31, 2020) into a funded interest term loan which shall be fully repaid during the course of the current financial year, ending March 31, 2021.
26. In view of the current difficulty in raising resources from capital markets, the group exposure limit of banks is being increased from 25 per cent to 30 per cent of eligible capital base, for enabling corporates to meet their funding requirements from banks. The increased limit will be applicable up to June 30, 2021.
(D) Measures to ease financial constraints faced by State Governments
Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF) of State Governments – Relaxation of Guidelines
27. In order to ease the bond redemption pressure on states, it has been decided to relax the rules governing withdrawal from the CSF, while at the same time ensuring that depletion of the Fund balance is done prudently. Together with the normally permissible withdrawal, this measure will enable the states to meet about 45 per cent of the redemptions of their market borrowings, due in 2020-21. This change in withdrawal norms will come into force with immediate effect and will remain valid till March 31, 2021.
28. Detailed guidelines for all the above announcements will be issued separately.
Concluding Remarks
29. Central banks are typically seen as conservative institutions. Yet when the tides turn and all the chips are down, it is to them that the world turns for support. As I have stated earlier, the RBI will continue to remain vigilant and in battle readiness to use all its instruments and even fashion new ones, as the recent experience has demonstrated, to address the dynamics of the unknown future. The goals, as I have enunciated earlier, are (i) to keep the financial system and financial markets sound, liquid and smoothly functioning; (ii) to ensure access to finance to all, especially those that tend to get excluded by financial markets; and (iii) to preserve financial stability. It shall be our endeavour that RBI’s actions and stance contribute to laying the foundations of a better tomorrow. Today’s trials may be traumatic, but together we shall triumph. Thank you.”
