By IFCMarkets

Better than forecast Australian data bullish for AU200

Australia’s economic data in the last couple of weeks were not as bad as feared: unemployment rise in April was not as steep as feared whereas consumer confidence improved in May. The Westpac Bank Consumer Confidence improved 16.4% in May after 17.7% deterioration in April. At the same time unemployment didn’t increase as much as feared: the unemployment rate rose to 6.2% in April from 5.2% in March, when a jump to 8.3% was expected. Furthermore, Australia’s balance of trade surplus rose more than expected: the surplus jumped to A$10.6 billion in March from 3.87 billion in previous month when an increase to 6.8 billion was expected. Better data are bullish for AU200. On the other hand, further deterioration of Australia’s economic performance is a downside risk: the Commonwealth Bank is due to report the composite PMI for Australia on Thursday, and a slight improvement in private business activity is forecast. An accelerating contraction in private sector activities in May will be bearish for AU200.

Summary of technical analysis

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