By IFCMarkets

Global risks increase demand for precious metals

US retail sales in April showed a record drop of 16.2% (month to month) since 1992, when they were first calculated. This is worse than the forecast (-12%). In March, retail sales fell by 8.3%. This indicator reflects the economic situation and investors now fear that the decline in US GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2020 may be a record (up to -40%, according to various estimates) since the 30s of the last century, a period known as the “Great Depression” in the country.
Let us recall that GDP fell by 4.8 % in the 1st quarter. Another negative macroeconomic factor was the very weak data on the American labor market for April, published 2 weeks ago, as well as the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the economic recovery will be long and painful. Another risk factor is the worsening of US-China trade relations as coronavirus pandemic fades. It should be noted that the United States industrial production indicator for April was better than expected. Earlier, China demonstrated a good pace of industrial recovery. This may have contributed to the rise in the silver price, which is both a precious metal, and is used in industry, in particular, when manufacturing electric cars. In turn, investors have long been buying gold. Its reserves in the world’s largest SPDR Gold Trust fund reached a 7-year high of 1104.7 tons.

Summary of technical analysis

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