On Tuesday the 21st of April, trading on the euro closed 4 pips down at 1.0856. The pair continued its sideways trend, trading within a corridor of 1.0815 to 1.0897. The US dollar was trading up in the first half of the day, before losing ground in the second.

In the Asian session, the collapse in oil prices continued. US stock indices took a dive. As investors moved towards safe haven assets, the US dollar went up, while US10Y bond yields went down. In the US session, the EURUSD pair bounced from 1.0817 to reach 1.0850.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 15:30 Canada: CPI (Mar).
• 16:00 US: housing price index (Feb).
• 17:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Apr).
• 17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (17 Apr).

Current situation:

The pair has been trading sideways since the 16th of April. Due to the situation with oil, the future direction is unclear. S&P 500 futures are trading up. Oil prices are correcting following their collapse. This gives us reason to believe that the EURUSD pair will rise to 1.0905. For now, we can’t see it rising any further since all the euro crosses are in the red. This is more indicative of an impending downwards reversal.

British CPI data rose 1.5% year-on-year in March compared to 1.7% in February (forecast: 1.5%). This data sent the pound upwards.

Today, Canada will publish data on consumer prices and housing prices, while Eurozone data on consumer confidence is set to be released. Today’s main event is the EIA crude oil stocks change report. Yesterday’s API report showed stocks had risen by 13.2 million barrels. Considering that WTI oil prices went negative for the first time in history, there can’t be a negative reaction to this news.