Source: Economic Events November 15, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar
As we approach the weekly close, the US Retail Sales will catch the attention of traders, especially USD/JPY traders.
While the outlook for the Japanese Yen hasn’t in fact changed over the last week, since US inflation came in below 2% at 1.8% last Wednesday and market participants not seeing any further dovishness from the Fed into the yearly end, markets seem a little too biased towards a “wait-and-see” approach from the US central bank.
That said, after USD/JPY pushed back towards 109.00/30, mainly driven by 10-year US-Treasury yields which took on bullish momentum in the first half of November while gaining over 20 basis points and driving the positive correlated USD/JPY higher, a disappointing US Retail Sales data set today could result in a weak weekly close in the USD/JPY.
Retail Sales data is expected to come in at 0.2% (MoM) for the month of October after a disappointing data set for September at -0.3%, showing the first decline in retail trade since February, mainly due to lower sales at motor vehicles, building materials, hobbies and online purchases.
Free Reports:
Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
So, any print below 0.2% and confirmation of the last Retail Sales prints leaves room for the Short-side in USD/JPY, which we also consider to be more attractive from a risk-reward-perspective with a first important target on the downside being found around 107.80/108.00:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between September 27, 2018, to November 14, 2019). Accessed: November 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT- Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.
Discover the world’s #1 multi-asset platform
Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition!
Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
- Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
- To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
- Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.
