By IFCMarkets

HLB Orange Tree Disease Spotted in Florida

Florida’s Department of Citrus states that there is big risk of orange trees infection in state Florida by pathogenic bacterium huang long bing (HLB). Will the Orange quotations rise?

The US state of Florida produces up to 80 % of the American orange juice. It should be emphasized, that U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts an increase in orange crop in Florida up to 74 million boxes (90 pounds) in the 2019/20 agricultural season. By this way, yet the ministry considers that the HLB disease of trees will not have any negative impact. The growth of quotations is possible if USDA begins to consider that crop forecasts to be revised downwards. It should be noted that 2019/20 agricultural season just began and will continue from November to May. Another factor for the growth of quotations of the orange juice could be the forecast of the agency CEPEA about decrease of the production of citrus trees in Brazil in the 2019/20 agricultural season due to the drought.

On the daily timeframe, Orange: D1 is correcting upwards from lowest since September 2009 and it has come near the resistance of the downtrend. Before opening a buy position, it should be breached up. Various technical analysis indicators have generated signals to increase. The further price increase is possible in case of a decline in the orange harvest in the USA.

• The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal
• The Bollinger bands have narrowed a lot which means low volatility.
• The RSI indicatoris above 50. No divergence.
• The MACD indicator shows a weak uptrend signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case if Orange will exceed the last two upper fractals and the upper Bollinger line: 102,8. This level may serve as an entry point. Initial stop lose may be placed below the 10-year low, the lower Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 90.5. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (90.5) without reaching the order (102.8), we recommend canceling the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

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