The recent recovery in Crude Oil has, partially, been based on increasing expectations of a global economic recovery taking place and the continued news that the US/China will work out a trade deal. Crude inventories. Just last week US Crude Oil inventories came in at +7.2 million barrels vs. expectations of -425,000 barrels (). Additionally, concerns in Syria and Libya are pushing prices a bit higher as well. Whenever there are supply concerns or uncertainty out of this region, prices tend to rise.
The facts remain very dynamic for Oil. The US is continuing to produce more and more oil and is expected to become a “net exporter” of oil this year. Economic issues will, eventually, resolve themselves, yet we don’t know the final outcome of these trade deals or how the economy will react to any milestones that are required within the final settlement. And, again, these continuing issues in Libya, Syria and near this region are likely to cause some increased levels of uncertainty over the next 60+ days.
Our researchers, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, believe the $65.00 level will act as resistance to this current upswing. We believe the upside price move may continue to levels near $67.50 before weakening and beginning a topping formation. We believe our expectation that precious metals will bottom near April 21~24 is key to understanding the dynamics of this move in Oil. As long as FEAR does not enter the market, then Oil will likely react to impulse factors exclusively related to Oil. Once Gold breaks out above $1500 per ounce, our belief is that Oil will react to fear factors related to some broader economic event driving investors into precious metals.
Therefore, we are urging traders to be cautious of the upside price swing in Oil at the moment. Yes, we believe the upside will continue for at least another 10~15 days (possibly changing direction near April 21~24). Yes, we believe current global dynamics support moderately higher Oil prices. Yet, we feel these factors may change within the next 20~45 days as we believe some increased fear levels are about to hit the global markets.
At this point, we would urge Bullish Oil traders to start to become more cautious of any downside risks and begin to prepare for increased volatility. We don’t have any real clue as to how this move will setup, but we do believe our other research support increased volatility within the Crude Oil markets and the potential for a new downside price swing before any further upside move sets up.
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Chris Vermeulen
