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On Tuesday the 11^th of September, trading on the euro closed slightly up against the dollar. The pair initially rose to 1.1644 before dropping to 1.1565. As I see it, these fluctuations were more the result of technical factors than fundamentals. I reckon that market participants are looking to gain a foothold somewhere ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 12:00 Eurozone: employment change (Q2), industrial production (Jul).
• 14:20 US: OPEC monthly report.
• 15:30 US: PPI (Aug).
• 17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (7 Sep).
• 21:00 US: Fed’s Beige Book.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

At the time of writing, the single currency is trading at 1.1584 against the greenback. The economic calendar is virtually empty today. As such, traders will continue to prepare for Mario Draghi’s press conference. A lot of people will want to get out of their positions ahead of his speech.

In today’s Asian session, the euro has lost a little bit of ground against the dollar. The AO indicator is in neutral territory, while the stochastic is in the buy zone. From a technical standpoint, the euro looks set to rise over the next 5 – 6 hours. As part of my weekly forecast, I expect to see the pair recover to around 1.1620 – 1.1650. I haven’t adjusted my forecast on the chart, but let’s wait and see how Thursday and Friday pan out.

The euro crosses provide a mixed picture. The euro is trading up on some of them, and down on others. Under these conditions, the euro could revisit the 67^th degree at 1.1563.

The majors are all trading down against the US dollar, except for the yen, which is enjoying increased demand. I think this is a result of a reduced appetite for risk among market participants. This could be either down to expectations of further interest rate hikes in the US, or increased trade tensions between the US and China.