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US Dollar net speculator position stands at $-4.85 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their aggregate bearish bets for the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-4.85 billion as of Tuesday May 29th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $3.13 billion from the $-7.98 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculator bearish position has now fallen for six straight weeks to the best level since January 2nd. Despite the six weeks of improvement, the USD aggregate level remains in bearish territory for the 46th straight week dating back to July 18th of 2017.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

This week saw three substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contract level for the speculators category.

The Euro currency speculative level dropped by over -10,000 contracts this week as speculator bullish positions have fallen for six straight weeks. The EuroFX bets have now declined to under the +100,000 threshold for the first time since December 26th 2017 when net positions totaled +92,148 contracts.

Canadian dollar speculator bets rose by over +10,000 net contracts this week and gained for the third time out of the past four weeks. The overall position remains negative (-15,690 contracts) but is at the least bearish level since March 20th.

Mexican peso speculative bets continued to decline and fell by over -10,000 contracts for a third straight week. Overall, the speculator peso bets have now dropped for seven consecutive weeks and the MXN spec position has fallen to the lowest level since May 2nd 2017 when net positions totaled +15,115 contracts..

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the British pound sterling (3,776 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (10,522 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (2,764 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the euro (-16,707 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-5,269 contracts), Swiss franc (-6,120 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,123 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-13,204 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com