The Energy Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   04/19/2018

Darren Horowitz, an analyst with Raymond James, provided a Q1/18 preview.

In an April 16 research report, Raymond James analyst Darren Horowitz noted that the effort made over the past 18 months or so to improve Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI:NYSE) financial standing helped decrease leverage and better positioned the company for providing value to shareholders.

Recently, the Houston-based firm has guided to an approximately 35% dividend compound annual growth rate between 2017 and 2020 and outlined a roughly $2 billion share buyback program to occur between Q4/17 and 2020. “Recent capital allocation announcements have set Kinder Morgan to outperform over the next 12–18 months (especially as share repurchases provide downside support through overemphasized project development headwinds),” Horowitz indicated. “We see this trade-off as compelling.”

The analyst shared what his firm expects in terms of Q1/18 production from Kinder Morgan. The natural gas pipelines segment should post strong volumes on the back of increased Bakken/Hiland numbers, progress at KinderHawk and severe winter weather. Moderate volume growth is expected in the CO2 segment, evened out by lower commodity prices and dampened volumes from its S&T assets. In the terminals segment, recent expansions should counteract divestitures, and in the products segment, the Utopia Pipeline should offset lower crude and condensate volumes.

The one unknown in the upcoming Q1/18 numbers, Horowitz pointed out, is financing costs within the Kinder Morgan Canada segment due to management having curtailed capital spending on the Trans Mountain expansion project (TMEP) in mid-quarter.

Regarding this “beleaguered” project, as described by Horowitz, Kinder Morgan intends to decide by May 31, 2018 whether or not to proceed with it. The management team will be addressing TMEP with various stakeholders over the ensuing weeks. Canadian government officials have voiced increasing support for TMEP, with one even broaching the idea of perhaps investing in it. Thus, a project green light by Kinder management can’t be ruled out.

Kinder Morgan is trading at a discount to its peers, which “despite lower relative risk (base business operations), creates a compelling opportunity,” Horowitz said. Raymond James has a Strong Buy and $22 per share target price on Kinder Morgan, whose stock is currently trading at around $16.61 per share.

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Disclosures from Raymond James, Kinder Morgan Inc., Apr. 16, 2018

ANALYST INFORMATION

Analyst Compensation: Equity research analysts and associates at Raymond James are compensated on a salary and bonus system. Several factors enter into the compensation determination for an analyst, including i) research quality and overall productivity, including success in rating stocks on an absolute basis and relative to the local exchange composite Index and/or a sector index, ii) recognition from institutional investors, iii) support effectiveness to the institutional and retail sales forces and traders, iv) commissions generated in stocks under coverage that are attributable to the analyst’s efforts, v) net revenues of the overall Equity Capital Markets Group, and vi) compensation levels for analysts at competing investment dealers.

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No part of said person’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.

RAYMOND JAMES RELATIONSHIP DISCLOSURES
Raymond James Ltd. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months.

Raymond James & Associates makes a market in shares of KMI.

( Companies Mentioned: KMI:NYSE,
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