10-Year Note Speculators sharply cut back on their bearish bets this week

March 17, 2018

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators strongly reduced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -271,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday March 13th. This was a weekly boost of 90,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -362,150 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions had risen for two straight weeks to the most bearish level since February 28th 2017 (-409,659 contracts) before this week’s turnaround by approximately 90,000 contracts. The bearish net level is under the -300,000 contract level for the first time in three weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:


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The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 511,659 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -101,182 contracts from the total net of 612,841 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $102.33 which was an advance of $0.40 from the previous close of $101.93, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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