One of our most interesting predictive modeling system is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system. It is capable of learning from past price data, building price DNA chains and attempting to predict future price activity with a fairly high degree of accuracy. The one thing we’ve learned about the ADL system is that when price mirrors the ADL predictive modeling over a period of time, then there is often a high probability that price will continue to mirror the ADL price predictions.
One of our more infamous ADL predictions was our October 2018 Gold ADL prediction chart (below). This chart launched a number of very interesting discussions with industry professionals about predictive modeling and our capabilities regarding Adaptive Learning. Eric Sprott, of Sprott Money, highlighted some of our analyses related to the ADL predictive modeling system in June and July 2019. Our ADL predictive modeling system suggested a bottom would form in Gold near April/May 2019 and then Gold would rally up toward $1600 by September 2019, then rotate a bit lower near $1550 levels.
October 2018 Gold Forecast
Current 2020 Gold Forecast
This next chart shows what really happened with Gold prices compared to the ADL predictions above. It is really hard to argue that the ADL predictions from October 2018 were not DEAD ON accurate in terms of calling and predicting the future price move in Gold. Will the ADL predictions for the NQ play out equally as accurate in predicting a downward price rotation of 1000pts or more?
Current 2020 NASDAQ Forecast
This NQ Weekly chart shares out ADL Predictive Modeling systems results originating on September 23, 2019. The Price DNA markers for this analysis consist of 15 unique price bars suggesting the future resulting price expectations are highly probable outcomes (95% to 99.95%). This analysis suggests the end of 2019 resulting in a broad market push higher in early 2020 may come to an immediate end with a downward price move of 800 to 1000+ pts before January 20~27, 2020. The ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price will be trading near 8000 by January 20th or so.
Only time will tell in regards to the future outcome of these ADL predictions, but given the current news of the US missile attack in Iraq and the uncertainty this presents, it would not surprise us to see the NQ fall below the 8000 level as this euphoric price rally rotates to find support before moving forward in developing a new price trend.
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Pay attention to what happens early next week with regards to price and understand the 8000 level will likely be strong support unless something breaks the support in the markets over the next 30+ days. Ultimate support near 7200 is also a possibility if a deeper downside move persists.
As we’ve been warning for many months, 2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled technical traders. You won’t want to miss these opportunities in precious metals, stocks, ETFs and others.
We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.
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Chris Vermeulen
