DAX30 CFD being pushed below 13,000 out of US-Iran war fears?

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events January 6, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

The DAX30 CFD had a prosperous start for the new year, but gave surrendered all its gains and more last Friday.

The main driver for this bearish action came from recent developments in the Middle East last Friday, when the Pentagon launched an airstrike that killed Iranian commander Soleimani, sparking fears that a war between the US and Iran could be about to start, increasing chances of a broad risk-off mode and break below 13,000 points on the table.

In addition to that, White House advisor Peter Navarro mentioned during his CNBC interview that the US is “going to try to get something going with Great Britain, Vietnam, Europe and anybody else who wants to fairly trade with the United States of America”.

If, based on these comments, speculation among market participants infer that Europe could be attacked with tariff announcement from the US in the near future, the German index could quickly see further selling pressure.

On the other hand; as the Fed to continues to flood markets with liquidity in the hopes of avoiding avoid a funding crisis, particularly in the repo market, (and will thus extend the Fed balance sheet to new record highs by mid-January) the downside should be limited and only a drop below 13,080/100 points would significantly darken the technical picture on H1.

The main focus on the upside stays on 13,480/500 points, and a break higher should be considered clearly bullish, making a test of the current all-time highs around 13,600 points likely:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between December 10, 2019, to January 3, 2020). Accessed: January 3, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between September 20, 2018, to January 3, 2020). Accessed: January 3, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, in 2019, it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.

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