The USD/JPY stays bearish below 108.50/109.00 – a stable weekly close?

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events September 27, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

As we enter the weekly close, we want to have a look at the USD/JPY again. But, while we face some interesting economic releases, it probably makes more sense to look also at the upcoming week of trading and the compelling economic events planned.

After the USD/JPY failed to break above 108.50/109.00, an attack which seemed to be driven by the speculation that the BoJ is considering cutting rates into a deeper negative territory at the September meeting was disappointed by BoJ Governor Kuroda. So over the last few days, we saw a correction of the move down to 106.80/107.00 again.

This move was certainly also supported by recent political uncertainties resulting out of the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives launching a formal impeachment inquiry into US president Trump.

That said, today, USD/JPY traders will closely monitor any developments around these uncertainties from the US political front, in addition to monitoring the trade dispute between the US and China.

If no news around these topics hit the wire, the USD/JPY should be expected to close the trading week above 106.80/107.00, even if today’s US economic releases disappoint.

Still, we remain cautious in regards to USD/JPY long-engagements as long as we trade below 108.50/109.00 since below the advantage in USD/JPY stays on the short-side:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between August 10, 2018, to September 26, 2019). Accessed: September 26, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

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