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On Wednesday the 24^th of July, trading on the euro closed slightly down against the dollar (-0.09%), with trading opening at 1.1150 and closing at 1.1139. The intraday high of 1.1155 was reached in both the European and US sessions, although the bears managed to bring the rate down to 1.1126 during the European session on the back of weak German data, where the manufacturing PMI came out worse than the already pessimistic expectations, marking a decline on the previous reading.

The Markit manufacturing PMI for July came out at 43.1 points, marking a 1.9 point drop on last month’s value of 45 points. The Eurozone is seeing a similar trend, with a drop from 52.2 to 51.5 points. The effects of these reports were short-lived, however, as US PMI data was also worse than expected, with the latest value dropping from its previous value of 50.6 points to 50 against a forecasted rise to 51, resulting in a rise for the euro and a decline on the dollar.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 14:45 Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision.
• 15:30 US: durable goods orders (Jun).
• 15:30 Eurozone: ECB monetary policy statement and press conference.

Current situation:

Nothing major has changed since yesterday, and the market continues to inch towards 1.1108. This level may be reached, and even breached, during the announcement of the ECB interest rate decision and the subsequent monetary policy statement. We may see some sharp fluctuations amid increased volatility, so any short positions that were opened with the breakout of 1.1194 should ideally have protective stop levels in place.