By Orbex

The Euro currency fell sharply on the day following the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. The central bank announced the launch of TLTRO program starting September with two-year maturity. The central bank also gave a dovish forward guidance with lower growth forecasts.

The ECB cut Eurozone’s growth to 1.1% for 2019. This was a lower projection after December’s estimates of 1.7%. The central bank left interest rates steady.

The final employment change for the fourth quarter was seen at 0.3% for the Eurozone, with no revisions from the previous estimates. Final GDP held steady at 0.2% for the three months ending December 2018.

In the NY trading session, Canada’s building permits fell 5.5% on the month, missing estimates of a 4.8% decline and weakening from 6.4% increase previously.

U.S. productivity grew 1.9% at the end of last year, beating estimates of a 1.8% increase. Productivity was seen averaging 1.3% since 2007 until last year. Annual unit labor costs rose 2.0% in the fourth quarter.

The overnight trading session saw New Zealand’s manufacturing sales report coming out. Data showed that for the fourth quarter of 2018, manufacturing sales fell 0.5%, following a downward revised print of 1.8% for the third quarter of 2018.

Earlier today, Japan’s revised GDP reports were released. Data showed that the fourth quarter GDP rose 0.5%, slightly up from a 0.4% increase that was estimated previously. The fourth quarter GDP increased from 0.3% in the third quarter.

The European trading session will kick off with Germany’s factory orders report. Data is expected to show that factory orders rose 0.5%, after falling 1.6% the month before. Industrial production figures from France and Italy are due later in the day.

The NY trading session will see the release of Canada’s employment report. Canada is forecast to add 0.3k jobs in February while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.8%. The U.S payrolls report is due later.

Economists expect headline payrolls to rise 181k in February, following a 304k increase in January. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.0% previously while the average hourly earnings could rise 0.3% during the month in February.

Later in the day, building permits and housing starts data will be coming out.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis

EURUSD (1.1195): The EURUSD currency pair posted strong declines on Thursday after the ECB’s meeting. Following the dovish comments from Draghi, the euro broke the support level of 1.1256 and extended declines down to 1.1200 level briefly. Price action at the moment looks bearish. If there is a bearish follow through from here on, we could expect the common currency to continue extending the declines even further below with the next support seen at 1.1150.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis

USDJPY (111.28): The USDJPY currency pair has retraced the gains after rallying to 112.04 level. The current declines has pushed the currency pair to test the previously established resistance level for support at 111.21. If this support holds, the USDJPY could be seen revering the declines and attempt to push higher. However, as long as the previous highs are not breached, the currency pair could remain range bound showing weakness to the upside.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

XAUUSD (1287.42): After gold prices formed a doji pattern for three consecutive sessions, price action is likely to signal a breakout from this range. The lower support at 1280 is likely to be breached to the downside. The support has been tested briefly twice and price action swiftly retraced the losses. To the upside, 1291.00 has formed as a minor resistance level. A breakout from this level to the upside will trigger a correction that could push gold prices toward 1306 level initially.

By Orbex