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On Monday the 28^th of January, trading on the EURUSD pair closed up. After a downwards correction to 1.1390, the bulls shifted the Asian session’s high from 1.1426 to 1.1444. The single currency enjoyed increased demand as investors adjusted their positions ahead of Tuesday’s vote in the British parliament on an EU withdrawal agreement. The euro crosses all rose except for EURJPY.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 10:00 Switzerland: trade balance (Nov).
• 10:45 France: consumer confidence (Jan).
• 12:15 UK: BoE Deputy Governor Woods’ speech.
• 17:00 US: S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices (Nov).
• 18:00 US: consumer confidence (Jan).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation

At the beginning of Monday’s European session, the euro slid to 1.1390. The drop occurred just as I’d expected, although it missed my target by 17 pips. The sharp reversal on the EURGBP pair changed market expectations among speculators until the end of the day.

Trader attention has switched to the FOMC press conference set to take place on Wednesday. Markets are expecting the regulator to announce a hiatus on their tightening of monetary policy. Aside from the FOMC, the British parliament’s vote on a Brexit deal will also be the focus of traders. This will have an influence on GBP currency pairs, which will in turn affect the major currencies.

We also shouldn’t forget about news of the US government bringing criminal charges against Chinese tech firm Huawei. This could have an effect on talk between the two countries as well as on risky assets. A retreat from riskier assets would be negative for the euro.

At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1437 against the greenback. Considering that all the euro crosses are trading up, I’m predicting the 1.1444 high to be revisited today. 1.1460 – 1.1470 is my target range.