October 27th 2018 – By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index speculator positions edged higher for 4th week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators continued to slightly add to their bullish bets for the US Dollar Index while sharply betting against the Mexican peso this week.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 38,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 23rd. This was a weekly increase of 152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,876 net contracts.

The speculator position has edged higher for four straight weeks and continues to notch higher levels. Overall, the spec bullish position has now advanced for twenty-five out of the past twenty-seven weeks and remains at the highest standing since May 2nd of 2017.

Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the individual currency contracts data, we saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Mexican peso bets dropped sharply this week by over -10,000 contracts and fell for a second straight week after the peso sentiment had improved for the previous five weeks. Overall, the current standing remains bullish is above the +50,000 contract level. The peso is the only major currency with a bullish standing among the major currencies.

The major currencies that improved this week were the US Dollar Index (152 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (3,356 contracts), Japanese yen (7,817 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,791 contracts), Australian dollar (1,123 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (2,364 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-960 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-581 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-10,548 contracts).

Other Notables:

Euro positions dropped lower for a fourth straight week and is in bearish territory also for the fourth straight week. The current standing at over -30,000 contracts is at the most bearish level since March 14th of 2017.

New Zealand dollar positions rebounded a little bit this week (+2,364 contracts) and came off the record high bearish level of last week. The NZD still remains very bearish and above the -30,000 contract level for a sixth week in a row.

See the table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com