EURUSD: reversal pattern remains in force as Merkel announces end of political career

October 30, 2018

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

Previous:

On Monday the 29th of October, trading on the euro closed down. The price swayed in different directions against the background of statements by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and data from the US.

Merkel has announced the end of her political career, stating that she will not see re-election in Germany’s next federal elections in 2021. The strengthening of the US currency was caused by the publication of favourable data on consumer spending and reduced demand for risky assets in response to the downward correction of US stock indices. Statistics are now important for the market, as the next increase in interest rates is expected next week in the US.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 9:30 France: GDP (Q3).
  • 10:45 France: Consumer spending (Sep).
  • 11:00 Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (Oct).
  • 11:55 Germany: unemployment change (Oct), unemployment rate s.a. (Oct).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: GDP (Q3), consumer confidence (Oct), economic sentiment indicator (Oct), industrial confidence (Oct), business climate (Oct).
  • 16:00 Germany: CPI (Oct).
  • 16:00 US: S&P/Chase-Shiller home price indices (Aug).
  • 17:00 US: CB consumer confidence (Oct).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:


Free Reports:

Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter





Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.





Yesterday’s market expectations were fully justified. The price dropped to the 45th degree and came back. The price model for growth began to lose momentum after the evenin fall. While it is relevant, I would venture today to consider a price increase from the 45th degree (1.1363) to 1.1425/30. If the hourly candlestick closes below 1.1355, the forecase will be cancelled. In this case, it is worth preparing for a new low of 1.1336.

Of the data mentioned, it’s worth paying attention to the labour market and inflation report in Germany.

InvestMacro

InvestMacro is a finance website dedicated to helping investors make better informed decisions through educational content and products