EURUSD: reversal pattern remains in force as Merkel announces end of political career

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On Monday the 29^th of October, trading on the euro closed down. The price swayed in different directions against the background of statements by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and data from the US.

Merkel has announced the end of her political career, stating that she will not see re-election in Germany’s next federal elections in 2021. The strengthening of the US currency was caused by the publication of favourable data on consumer spending and reduced demand for risky assets in response to the downward correction of US stock indices. Statistics are now important for the market, as the next increase in interest rates is expected next week in the US.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 9:30 France: GDP (Q3).
• 10:45 France: Consumer spending (Sep).
• 11:00 Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (Oct).
• 11:55 Germany: unemployment change (Oct), unemployment rate s.a. (Oct).
• 13:00 Eurozone: GDP (Q3), consumer confidence (Oct), economic sentiment indicator (Oct), industrial confidence (Oct), business climate (Oct).
• 16:00 Germany: CPI (Oct).
• 16:00 US: S&P/Chase-Shiller home price indices (Aug).
• 17:00 US: CB consumer confidence (Oct).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

Yesterday’s market expectations were fully justified. The price dropped to the 45^th degree and came back. The price model for growth began to lose momentum after the evenin fall. While it is relevant, I would venture today to consider a price increase from the 45^th degree (1.1363) to 1.1425/30. If the hourly candlestick closes below 1.1355, the forecase will be cancelled. In this case, it is worth preparing for a new low of 1.1336.

Of the data mentioned, it’s worth paying attention to the labour market and inflation report in Germany.