Forex Speculators raised US Dollar Index bets for 18th week

August 25th 2018 – By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators once again boosted their bets for the US Dollar Index this week while also raising their bearish bets for the euro and British pound sterling.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 34,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 21st. This was a weekly increase of 2,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,033 net contracts.

The speculative position in the Dollar Index futures has now risen for an eighteenth consecutive week to the highest overall bullish standing since May 16th of 2017 when the net position totaled 34,275 contracts (a span of 66 weeks).

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The Aggregate US Dollar Position edges higher for 3rd week

The aggregate US dollar position – the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc – showed that currency speculators edged their overall bets higher to $23.67 billion as of Tuesday August 21st, according to data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $0.5 billion from the $23.17 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation.

The USD aggregate position rose for a third straight week and for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks. The current standing is now at the highest level since January 17th of 2017 when the bullish total was $24.44 billion.

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Individual Currency Contract Data this week

Overall, in the individual currency contracts this week, the non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, bet in favor of the US Dollar Index (2,089 weekly change in contracts), the Japanese yen (10,962 contracts), Australian dollar (1,576 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (1,550 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-3,052 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-11,597 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,369 contracts), Canadian dollar (-823 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-5,404 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.

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Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency	Net Commercials	Comms Weekly Chg	Net Speculators	Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx	-3,751	6,556	-4,841	-3,052
GBP	97,277	12,723	-72,338	-11,597
JPY	68,700	-11,510	-47,406	10,962
CHF	62,178	-3,597	-47,218	-1,369
CAD	26,792	-4,491	-27,021	-823
AUD	76,193	419	-50,207	1,576
NZD	29,976	-610	-25,143	1,550
MXN	-30,056	5,200	25,670	-5,404

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

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Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

• Euro bets fell for a second week and went further into bearish territory. Euro positions were over the +100,000 contracts level just fourteen weeks ago

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British Pound Sterling:

• British pound sterling bets dropped for a fifth straight week and the overall position continues to be at the most bearish level since May 2nd 2017

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Japanese Yen:

• Japanese yen bearish bets declined for a fourth week in a row. Current positions are at the least bearish of the past six weeks

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Swiss Franc:

• Swiss franc bets continued to push more bearish as the current standing is at the most bearish level since June 26th of 2007 when the net position totaled -58,831 contracts

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Canadian Dollar:

• Canadian dollar bets fell for a second week after improving in the previous four weeks. The overall position has now been in bearish territory for the past twenty-two weeks

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Australian Dollar:

• Australian dollar bets improved for a second week although they remain bearish. The overall position has now been in a bearish standing for twenty-one straight weeks and above the -50,000 contract level for the past four weeks

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New Zealand Dollar:

• New Zealand dollar bearish positions declined last week although they remain in very bearish territory for this currency. The current position has been above the -20,000 net contract level for the past eight weeks and hovering right around the most bearish level on record

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Mexican Peso:

• Mexican peso positions fell for a second straight week this week but remain in bullish territory (the only non-dollar currency with bullish net contracts). The peso has now been in an overall bullish position for the past eight weeks

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*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com