EURUSD: drop on the hourly timeframe still incomplete

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On Thursday the 16^th of March, trading on the euro closed down. The US dollar yesterday made gains against all the majors. Demand for it increased after the publication of US economic data.

The US posted a rise in import prices, a decline in initial jobless claims, and a significantly higher-than-expected value on the Fed’s NY Empire State manufacturing index.

Markets expect that the FOMC will raise interest rates by 0.25% next week. US10Y bond yields are currently trading at 2.83%. The end of yesterday’s session was met with the news that special prosecutor Robert Muller has subpoenaed Trump Organization documents in connection with the Russia probe.

US data:

• Initial jobless claims (9 Mar): 226,000 (forecast: 226,000, previous: 230,000).
• Import price index (Feb): 0.4% (forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.8%).
• Export price index (Feb): 0.2% (forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.8%).
• NY Empire State manufacturing index (Mar): 22.5 (forecast: 15.0, previous: 13.1).
• Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Mar): 22.3 (forecast: 23.0, previous: 25.8).

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 13:00 Eurozone: CPI (Feb).
• 15:30 Canada: Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jan), foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan), manufacturing shipments (Jan).
• 15:30 USA: building permits (Feb), housing starts (Feb).
• 16:15 USA: industrial production (Feb).
• 17:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Mar), JOLTS job openings (Jan).
• 20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The first half of my forecast yesterday worked out perfectly. This all changed, however, after the breakout of the trend line.

During the US session, sellers trading on the news managed to break through the horizontal support zone of 1.2340 – 1.2350, as well as the trend line from the 1.2273 low. The drop slowed down around the 90^thdegree. This isn’t a significant support level, so after a correction to 1.2324 (22 degrees), I’m expecting the euro to drop against the greenback to the 112^th degree at 1.2274.

The trend line extended from the high of 1.2413 runs through 1.2450 on the current hour (9:00 EET). Here, it is being bolstered by the 45^th degree. Given that trading in Asia today paints a mixed picture of the US dollar, and that most of the euro crosses are trading up, we can’t rule out the possibility of quotes rising as far as 1.2340/50.

There’s a lot of news planned for today, which should keep market volatility high. It will be worth taking note of the Eurozone’s CPI for February during the European session.