The US equity markets could be characterised as quite bullish today as markets were quick to take back some of the ground that was lost last week. Despite the tough talk on trade, and the likelihood of further tariffs it did not deter equity bulls, who perhaps see Trumps tariff tough talk as potentially a political stunt. Regardless of the outcome on a day when little was said, and most of the spotlight was on Russia, the bulls were quick to come back into the market and shrug off the volatility that has been sending the market into a spin.
The S&P 500 once again featured as one of the key trades, as again the 200 day moving average acted as dynamic support stopping all the bears in their tracks and launch a bullish fight back today. The lift higher has touched on resistance at 2664 at this stage, and it’s showing bullish signs yet as the daily candle has engulfed the previous days bearish candle so this is a strong for me. The next major level higher is likely to find stiff resistance around the 100 day moving average (blue) and resistance at 2693 and this could be a genuine test for the market at this stage, given that while it’s bullish at present, can it sustain even higher despite the recent economic woes. I don’t think we will have long to wait to find out, but a bounce here in a bearish manner could send the S&P 500 hurtling back down to the 200 day moving average. Either way the US equity markets are likely to remain the focus for traders looking for volatility and quick wins at present.
Gold has also come into focus on the back of the volatility, as the market continues to be awash with uncertainty and economic vulnerability. Safe haven investors are looking for a hedge on the back of inflation worries and of course the whipsawing of equity markets which has all the signs of a possible dive lower causing flight if things get much worse. For the most part traders should also be aware that any rise in the USD could erode any gains in gold, so it’s not as certain as many predict and requires weaker markets and a bearish USD for the bullish gold run to continue in the long run.
So far gold looks to be firing and on a bit of a bullish run, the rise higher to 1357 continues to look like a possibility, but it would be hard pressed to push through this level – unless Trump throws a spanner in the works. On the bearish side hard support levels can be found at 1340 and1326, but for the me the 100 day moving average is likely to act as dynamic support here and should be the focus of most traders looking for a clean bounce in the event we head lower.