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US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-11.29 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their bearish bets for the US dollar for the first time in four weeks.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-11.29 billion as of Tuesday February 27th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-3.12 billion from the $-8.17 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculative position ascended back over the $-10.00 billion bearish level after spending the previous two weeks below this standibng. The aggregate dollar level has remained in bearish territory now for thirty-three straight weeks going back to July of 2017.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

This week saw two substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contracts for the speculator category.

The Japanese yen positions rose by over +11,000 bets this week and gained for a second straight week. The overall bullish level for the JPY has now fallen under the -100,000 net contract level for the first time in twenty-one weeks dating back to October 2017.

The Euro speculative positions also increased by over +11,000 net contracts this week after declining for three straight weeks. The euro position remains over the +100,000 contract level for the ninth straight week and not far below the record high level of +148,742 that was just recently reached on January 30th.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (11,851 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (4,884 contracts) and the Japanese yen (11,687 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the Swiss franc (-211 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-907 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,301 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,935 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-2,314 contracts)..

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com