New Zealand dollar traders are struggling to get enough of the recent new government changes, after the government looks to pass legislation banning foreign investment into the housing market. This will be met with strong approval domestically, but the flow on effects could be more damaging as it looks to drive away foreign investors from New Zealand’s shores. The government is now at a stage where increasingly it’s getting a name for taxation, but the government is promising economic prosperity as well so it could be a case of wait and see. I think that may very well be the case, however for the NZDUSD we may see further falls as it struggles to find an equilibrium in the current market. Obviously, people are looking for the bottom but until we see the first 100 days it becomes very hard to make heads or tails when it comes to economic impact.
On the charts the NZDUSD has continued to find itself under pressure, and the end is not looking great at present. While the NZDUSD is slipping USD weakness is not playing through after the recent arrests and talks, which is conceding that the Bears may take this pair further. There are a number of options for movements lower but I still feel the high 60s might not be where the NZDUSD stops at this rate. The low 60s are starting to look more realistic especially as it holds up at support at 0.6846 with potential further falls to support at 0.6802 and 0.6697. In the event we did see a further rise on the charts the resistance at 0.6891 and 0.6960 is likely to be key areas where we could see the NZD whacked back down further if it was looking more aggressive.
The Bank of Japan continued with its inaugural meeting and decided on no major changes. However, times are changing and the need for results is becoming all the more urgent. New board members to the Bank of Japan are increasingly hawkish and this will start to have flow on effects in the long run. I continue to feel that a lot of flak is unjustified for the Bank of Japan and that it’s still trying to find its mandate a little more in the era of Abenomics. The real threat though will come domestically as Japanese economic habits continue to thwart progress in the long run, due to spending habits.
For me the USDJPY continues to look like a good trade through the USD turbulence at present, especially as its safe haven status continues to be the main focus. Obviously, in the short term it may be more bearish, however in the long run I think the BoJ will be more aggressive with its stimulus and monetary policy forcing the USDJPY to strengthen. Right now resistance is looking fairly strong at 113.257 with further potential upside to 114.258 and 115.322. Support for me is primarily targeted at 111.944 and could very well find itself under pressure given the recent US debacles.