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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-8.02 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their bearish bets for the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-8.02 billion as of Tuesday October 24th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $4.63 billion from the $-12.65 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

US dollar bets have improved for four straight weeks bringing the bearish position to its smallest level since August 1st. The dollar has now been in an overall net bearish position for fifteen consecutive weeks.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies saw two weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

• Japanese yen positions declined by over -15,000 contracts this week and have fallen four out of the last five weeks. The JPY speculative bets are in the most bearish position since July 25th when contracts were at -121,489 contracts.
• Mexican peso positions fell by over -15,000 contracts after decreasing by over -11,000 contracts last week. Peso bullish positions continue to be in a bullish position but have fallen to the lowest bullish level since May 23rd.

Overall, all the other major currencies speculative bets fell this week versus the dollar with the declines being seen in the euro (-6,948 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-6,532 contracts), Japanese yen (-15,571 contracts), Swiss franc (-6,666 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,754 contracts), Australian dollar (-4,550 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,366 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-15,366 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com