Daily Forex Market Preview, 04/09/2017

The US dollar closed out on Friday with some modest gains. The nonfarm payrolls data was broadly mixed. According to the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 156k jobs in August. This was below consensus estimates of 180k. July’s numbers were also revised down to 189k from 209k previously.

Average hourly earnings were also weak, rising just 0.1% on the month after rising 0.3% in July. The unemployment rate inched higher to 4.4%.

The rather weak payrolls report was offset by the ISM manufacturing PMI data. For August, manufacturing PMI rose to 58.8, beating estimates by a strong margin and accelerating from 56.3 in July.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will include the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence. Median estimates point to a reading of 27.4, slightly below 27.7 that was registered previously. The UK’s construction PMI numbers will also be coming out later in the day with forecasts showing a modest increase from 51.9 in July to 52.1 in August.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1884): The EURUSD closed last week below 1.2000 handle. Friday’s payrolls data briefly pushed the common currency to test the minor intraday resistance at 1.1963 following which the common currency reversed to close lower on the day. We now expect the EURUSD remains trading below 1.1882 into this Thursday’s ECB meeting. The next main support is seen at the 1.1688 level which could be tested. However, for this to occur, EURUSD will need to break past the minor intraday support at 1.1825. A decline to 1.1688 could potentially mark a decent correction in EURUSD’s rally to 1.2000.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.2955): The British pound managed to push higher, but the currency pair eased back after briefly rising to a 14-day high. Further upside gains can be expected as GBPUSD approaches the previously broken support level at 1.3033. A retest of this level as resistance will confirm the downside bias. This will also potentially mark the right shoulder formation in the chart pattern, setting the stage for a decline back to the neckline support at 1.2847. A breakdown below this neckline support will signal a move towards 1.2628.

USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (109.78): USDJPY is likely to resume its bullish trend following Friday’s retest of the support level at 109.65. This was the level from which USDJPY broke out from the falling trend line. With price not quite testing the resistance level at 110.72, we could expect a breakout from this level. A convincing close above 110.72 will keep the bullish bias intact as USDJPY will now be targeting 113.00. To the downside, failure to hold above 109.65 will keep USDJPY consolidating with the potential to retest the 109.15 support.