By Mexgroup.com

NZD/USD Bounce Or Break?

The currency pair has increased in the morning, but failed to reach the 0.7343 previous high and an important dynamic resistance. The sellers have stepped in again and have forced the rate to erase the morning gains.

NZD/USD dropped even if the USDX slides further, the index slipped below the 91.92 static support and below a dynamic support, so it could hit new lows. You should be careful today because the FOMC will shake the markets, a dovish speech will punish the USD again.

There are some rumors that said that the FED will still hike the rate in December despite the poor US data, we could have a neutral speech which could help the dollar.

The Kiwi rallied in the morning as the New Zealand Current Account has come in better than expected, was reported at -0.62B, higher versus the -0.82B estimate. The US Existing Home Sales will come out in the afternoon and are expected to increase from 5.44M to 5.46M.

Price increased and resumed the yesterday’s bullish momentum, but failed to reach and retest the third warning line (WL3) of the former descending pitchfork. A failure to reach it will signal a minor decrease, but will be better to stay away from trading today because anything could happen. The FOMC Press Conference should bring a high volatility, while the direction is uncertain. Technically, a valid breakout above the WL3 will confirm a further increase in the upcoming weeks.

USD/JPY Bloodless

USD/JPY decreased a little in the Asian session after another failure to close above the 38.2% retracement level. It could come down to retest the WL3 before will climb much higher. Technically, it is expected to approach and reach the median line (ml) of the minor blue ascending pitchfork.  However, a failure to reach the mentioned dynamic resistance will send the rate down very fast. Is trading near the 111.50 level, we have a major upside target somewhere at 114.28 level, will reach it only if the USDX will start an impressive rally.

Gold Testing The Sellers  

Gold has come back to retest the broken uptrend line and the first warning line (WL1) of the major red descending pitchfork. Is traded above the $1312 per ounce and could climb much higher if the USD will drop further after the FOMC. A minor consolidation above the WL2  and above the $1303 per ounce will signal another rally towards the 250% Fibonacci line, despite the breakdown below the uptrend line.

By Olimpiu Tuns

Market Analyst

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