RBA to set tone for AUD

August 1, 2017

Article by ForexTime

If there is one thing on the lips of traders today it is most certainly the Australian rate decision due out early this morning. The market does not have high hopes for anything major with 90% of the market expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold at the current 1.5%. More so many are expecting the RBA to act neutral with its current outlook on the economy, while reaffirming a positive outlook for the global economy. This is likely to poor cold water on major movements, but there is a small chance that the RBA could be hawkish and markets are very much likely to be looking for any hawkish words to jump on. Even though the inflation is not there at present, the labour market and general business outlook continues to be major strong points, so there is plenty more potential for hawkish comments over dovish ones.

At present the AUDUSD has been riding a wave of bullish volatility higher, but it has run out of steam just short of the 80 cent market and there has not been much appetite to climb higher without strong economic news. Resistance at 0.8006 is currently the big movement that markets are looking to crash through, and the RBA could build a strong case against these movements as it does see a strong AUD as a threat to helping the economy grow. In the event the RBA looked to jawbone the market and shift the AUDUSD lower, I would expect pressure to occur on support levels at 0.7901 and 0.7761. With further potential of the 20 day moving average acting as dynamic support in the current market environment as well.

Silver markets have been trending higher recently on the back of mixed market sentiment and a weakening US dollar. While not as speculative as the gold market, because it has strong economic purposes, it is clear that traders still do love it when it comes to market movements, and large players can certainly bring the volatility.  The Trump economic policies have not eventuated and even though long term markets continue to bearish there is ever the uncertainty we could see a resurgence in the precious metal.

Silver on the charts as mentioned above has been in a bearish downtrend, but recent volatility and USD weakness has seen it creep back up and there is potential for a bearish trend line to form depending on how the market treats today. The 200 day moving average is also one to watch if we saw a breakout as it may look to push it back lower as it acts as dynamic resistance. Above this level is two major levels of resistance at 17.696 and 18.607. On the support side we have key levels at 16.530 and 15.664, all of which are likely to hold under pressure.

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