A sense of unease gripped the financial markets on Monday, with world stocks mostly lower as geopolitical uncertainty weighed on risk appetite. Asian equity markets concluded depressed amid the lack of appetite for risk, and this bearish contagion has already infected European stocks. With geopolitical tensions in the Far East and political drama in Washington denting risk sentiment, Wall Street is likely to come under pressure this afternoon.
Gold was heavily supported last week, with the price sprinting towards $1300 as geopolitical risk accelerated the flight to safety. The yellow metal received a further boost from the ongoing pall of uncertainty swirling around President Donald Trump. With expectations fading over the Federal Reserve raising interest rates amid inflation concerns, and political risk in Washington punishing the Dollar, Gold is likely to venture higher. From a technical standpoint, the metal is bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Bulls should have enough confidence to attack $1300 once again, as long as prices stay above $1283.
EURUSD supported above 1.1700
The EURUSD traded in a tight range on Monday, as investors continued to digest Julys’ European Central Bank meeting minutes, which revealed concerns over the strengthening of the Euro. A resurgent Euro complicates the ECBs’ effort to hit the 2% inflation target, by making exports less attractive and imports cheaper. Euro bulls remain at risk of having their wings clipped if Mario Draghi verbally intervenes at Jackson Hole to weaken the currency. From a technical standpoint, the EURUSD is bullish on the daily timeframe, as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A breakout and daily close above 1.1830 should encourage a further incline higher towards 1.1900.
Can Sterling/Dollar breach 1.2850?
Sterling bears have received ample inspiration from the Brexit uncertainty this month, while soft economic fundamentals from the UK continue to fuel the downside. Technical traders will be paying very close attention to how the GBPUSD reacts to 1.2850, with a breakdown likely to open a path towards 1.2775. With expectations fading over the Bank of England raising UK interest rates anytime soon and uncertainty stunting investor attraction towards the currency, bears remain in control. Sustained weakness below 1.2775 should open a path lower to 1.2600.
Commodity spotlight – WTI
WTI Crude was pressured by ongoing oversupply concerns on Monday, with prices sliding back towards $48.20. Oil’s bearish price action continues to suggest that investors are becoming increasingly sceptical of the cartel’s ability to rebalance the saturated oil market. The possible threat of OPEC’s supply cut deal falling apart if oil prices fail to recover, is likely to weigh on investor sentiment and pressure the commodity further. From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude needs to break back below $48 to encourage a further decline towards $46.50.