EURUSD: price came close to 1.15

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On Tuesday the 11^th of July, trading on the euro closed significantly up. Before the US session, the price was trading within a 20-pip range. The price exited this range as BoE representative Broadbent gave his speech and the euro/pound cross sharply rose. US bond yields fell by 1% to 2.37%.

Later in the day, it was revealed to the market that US president Donald Trump’s son, Donald Jr., published email transcripts on Twitter of his correspondence about meetings with Russian lawyer Natalya Veselnitskaya and American music promoter Rob Goldstone, who organized the meeting. Trump Jr. was expecting to receive some compromising information about Hillary Clinton.

Now, the media is using this correspondence to reinforce their accusations against President Trump having ties with Russia. Trump Jr. was forced to release the emails before anyone else as the New York Times had already partially revealed their content. As a result, the US dollar index fell to 95.65, US bond yields fell to 2.35% and the dollar fell against the euro to 1.1480.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 09:00 Germany: wholesale price index (Jun);
• 11:30 UK: average earnings (May), claimant count change (Jun), ILO unemployment rate (May);
• 12:00 Eurozone: industrial production (May);
• 17:00 Canada: BoC monetary policy report and interest rate decision;
• 17:00 USA: Fed’s Yellen testifies;
• 17:30 USA: EIA crude oil stocks change (7 Jul);
• 18:15 Canada: BoC press conference;
• 20:00 USA: 10-year note auction;
• 21:00 USA: Fed’s beige book.

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

On Tuesday, BoE member Broadbent, as well as Trump Jr. helped the euro bulls bring the euro rate up to 1.1480. In Asia, the euro rose to 1.1489.

The price has deviated from the LB balance line by 0.62% and from the low of 1.1380 by 90 degrees. The U3 MA line runs through 1.1533 and the 112^th degree through 1.1514. These are the levels that the price could reach if Janet Yellen disappoints dollar buyers. She’s giving testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

The EURUSD has hit a new 52-week high. Now it’s an open question of whether the euro/dollar rate will fall with the euro/pound cross or the pound/dollar will catch up with the other pairs. The euro/pound cross has helped the euro strengthen against the dollar. If people start profit-taking here, the euro/dollar could also fall.

The price is currently slightly above the daily A-A channel. If the day closes above 1.1470, it’ll open the way towards 1.1595/1.16. Without any corrections on the euro/pound cross, the euro/dollar rate could reach 1.16 by way of a saw tooth model.

I’ve decided not to make a forecast with Yellen’s testimony looming. Speeches from central bank representatives and newsmakers could easily break all technical models and signal indicators. In the last few days, buyers have stopped the formation of a double top model.