By Mexgroup.com

USD/JPY undecided

Price has posted important gains in the last hours and is trying to stay higher as the USDX has managed to erase the morning gains and to recover after the morning sell-off.  The dollar index is trading in the green ahead of the US data release, remains to see how will react after the reports will be published, another disappointment will send the dollar tumbling.

The US Unemployment Claims are expected to increase again, from 233K to 240K in the previous week, while the Core Durable Goods Orders may increase by 0.4% and could beat the 0.3% growth in the former reading period. The Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase by 3.5% in June, more after the 0.8% drop in the former reporting period, while the Goods Trade Balance is forecasted to increase from -65.9B to -65.0B in the last month. Prelim Wholesale Inventories could increase by 0.3%, less compared to the 0.4% in May.

USD/JPY continues to move sideways on the short term, has tried to increase, but was stopped by the 112.19 level. Now is trading below the 38.2% retracement level and much below the 150% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line), a drop towards the 50% retracement level and towards the warning line (wl1) is favored. Will decrease only if the USDX will slide further and if the Nikkie stock index will stay below the 20058 major static resistance.

Is trapped between the 23.6% and the 50% retracement levels, that’s why I’ve said that will approach the downside line of this range. A buying opportunity will appear only if will come down to retest the confluence area formed between the 50% retracement level and the warning line (wl1), or if will manage to breakout above the third warning line (WL3) of the descending pitchfork.

AUD/USD rejected by dynamic resistance

Price increased sharply after the FOMC and jumped much above the first warning line (wl1) of the minor ascending pitchfork, but found strong resistance at the 150% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line). Is pressuring the wl1, a retest of this level followed by a decrease will open the door for a decline towards the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork. Support can be found also at the 0.7989 level and much lower at 0.7874 static downside obstacle.

NZD/USD is this a valid breakout?

NZD/USD touched new highs today, has climbed as much as 0.7557 level, much above the  0.7528 yesterday’s high, but failed to stay there and now is challenging the third warning line (WL3). Only a valid breakout above this line will confirm a further increase in the upcoming period, we may have a buying opportunity if will close above the WL3 and if will come back to retest the 0.7484 level. A selling opportunity will appear if will slip and will stabilize below the 0.7484 static support.

By Olimpiu Tuns

Market Analyst

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