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US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $4.50 billion last week
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators reduced their bullish bets for the US dollar last week to the lowest level in just about a year.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $4.50 billion as of Tuesday June 27th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-3.32 billion from the $7.82 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The US dollar aggregate bullish position is currently at the lowest standing since July 5th 2016 when net positions totaled $4.18 billion. The USD speculative position has now remained under the +10.0 billion threshold for six straight weeks.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
The individual major currency contracts saw more significant movements this week with four major currencies seeing weekly changes above the 10,000 contract mark.
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- The euro saw its speculator position rise by almost +14,000 contracts after a steep fall the previous week
- Mexican peso positions bounced back strong after a large decline the previous week and now positions have risen four out of last five weeks
- Canadian dollar positions jumped by over +30,000 contracts this week and rose for the fifth straight week
- Japanese yen positions fell by their most of the past six weeks and are now at the most bearish level since March
Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (13,843 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (33,386 contracts), Australian dollar (4,716 contracts), New Zealand dollar (3,778 contracts) and the Mexican peso (32,022 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-11,391 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,529 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,687 contracts).
Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:
| Currency | Net Commercials | Comms Weekly Chg | Net Speculators | Specs Weekly Chg |
| EuroFx | -75,505 | -15,350 | 58,695 | 13,843 |
| GBP | 43,194 | 918 | -39,133 | -1,529 |
| JPY | 82,010 | 13,998 | -61,350 | -11,391 |
| CHF | 3,219 | 764 | -4,669 | -1,687 |
| CAD | 47,978 | -37,788 | -49,495 | 33,386 |
| AUD | -20,451 | -6,254 | 19,749 | 4,716 |
| NZD | -26,325 | -3,586 | 25,233 | 3,778 |
| MXN | -86,511 | -30,687 | 81,007 | 32,022 |
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX: 
British Pound Sterling: 
Japanese Yen: 
Swiss Franc: 
Canadian Dollar: 
Australian Dollar: 
New Zealand Dollar: 
Mexican Peso: 
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com
