EUR/USD: increased risk of the trend line being broken

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At the end of Monday’s trading, the EUR/USD rate closed in negative territory. During the American session, the rate rebounded from a minimum of 1.0705 up to 1.0755. I don’t believe that there was any significant news behind this rebound. It was a standard correction after Friday’s payrolls.

Market expectations:

Trading in Asia moved yesterday’s low to 1.0704. From a high of 1.0755, the euro slid by 45 degrees. A strong support has formed at this level over the past couple of days. the rate also kissed the trend line.

I think that the trend line will be broken through on Wednesday. Before this happens, it would be nice to see the rate revert to around 1.0740/43. In such a case, we could be sure that the line would be broken through at the first attempt, and that all traders on the hourly timeframe would see a triangle form.

Should it be broken through today, with the current pricing model putting the maximum at 1.0829, there is a high chance that this will be a false breakthrough. Buyers can trust the stop levels, but nothing more. The hourly indicators are badly positioned for offensive strategies.

Day’s news:

• 9:45 Switzerland: SECO consumer climate (Nov-Jan);
• 10:00 Germany: industrial production (Dec);
• 11:00 Switzerland: foreign currency reserves (Jan);
• 11:30 UK: Halifax house prices (Jan);
• 16:30 Canada: trade balance (Dec), building permits (Dec); USA: trade balance (Dec);
• 18:00 Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan); USA: JOLTS job openings (Dec), IBD/TIPP economic optimism (Feb);
• 23:00 USA: consumer credit change.

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Intraday forecast: low; 1.0704 (current in Asia), high: 1.0742, close: 1.0712.

My expectations for the euro yesterday came true in full. The euro rate corrected against Friday’s American session and returned to around 1.0750 by closing time.

In Asia, the euro weakened against the dollar to 1.0704. The rate is now around the horizontal support and trend line. It’s apparent that buyers are reluctant to cross this line. I think that the breakthrough will happen on Wednesday, which is exactly why I’ve made a two-day forecast.

I believe that from its current level, it would be good for the rate to return to around 1.0735-1.0743. From this range, traders can sell their euros on the assumption that the triangle will bring the price down. As a target, one can first take 1.0652 for the 90^th degree, and then 1.0626 for the 112^th.

US bond yields are declining, so there is no reason for aggressively shorting the euro for the moment. The EUR/GBP cross is currently in unison with sellers, but again the hourly indicators show that a correction is overdue.