The first trading week of 2017 ended with all major U.S. indices hitting new all-time highs, the dollar touching fresh 14-year high, and Chinese currency erasing two months of losses. In fact, it was a very decent week especially when compared to first trading week of 2016 when worries about China’s growth slammed markets with S&P 500 posting losses of 6%, China’s Shanghai Composite falling 10% and oil sinking 11%, to mark one of the worst ever first week of trading.
We’re likely to see interesting market moves the week ahead as U.S. earning season kicks off, U.S. president elect Donald Trump holds his first news conference on Wednesday, and many Fed officials scheduled to speak.
Investors who pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average 9% since Mr. Trump was elected are very keen to know more details about his foreign policy and trade plans, tax reforms, and infrastructure spending. Although we believe that the positive aspect has been almost fully priced in, his speech might still create some noise in financial markets, especially when it comes to the future of U.S. relations with the China, Mexico and Russia.
Investors are going to shift back to fundamentals the week ahead with the financial sector which contributed the most in the latest rally is due to report fourth quarter results. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all report earnings on Friday, and requires to outperform expectations to keep the rally alive, but given that the bar is already high with earnings expected be up 15.7% for the financial sector it is going to be tough to beat expectations with high margins.
The financial sector and the U.S. dollar will also be guided by the busy scheduled speeches from Fed officials including Chair Janet Yellen and four other voting members of the FOMC. It will be interesting to see their reactions on Friday’s jobs report were wage growth accelerated at fastest pace since 2009, and whether this suggests higher inflation in the foreseeable future. However, we don’t expect broad changes from Decembers view, especially that Trump’s fiscal plans remain vague for the time being.
On the U.S. data front, we have to wait until Friday for market moving indicators. December’s retail sales will show whether the surprising wage growth increase translated into more consumer spending. Markets expect a 0.7% increase from 0.1% in November. However, it requires a number above 1% to provide another push higher for the U.S. dollar, but given the disappointing holiday sales from some U.S. department stores, we’re unlikely to see a very positive report.