With the world watching Trump it’s easy to lose sight of everything else around you, but markets have certainly not taken their eye of the United Kingdom and the upcoming supreme court verdict due out tomorrow – which could create some very large headaches in the market. At 9:30am GMT the courts will publish their results on the matter of triggering article 50, and while parliament is set to go ahead traders will be aware that it may further prolong it being triggered. In the event that the court does not back the government it will likely cause the bulls to seize the moment and push the pound higher, so short term gains are very much apparent in this case. If the reverse happens we could see it dip lower though, as the government may speed up its case to leave sooner with the court backing it.
Regardless of the decision the pound has so far broken out of its recent ranging motion in the wake of USD weakness globally. So far the GBPUSD is pushing higher and is looking to touch the key level of resistance at 1.2537, with the potential to go even further to 1.2677. In the event of a reversal and push lower it will be interesting to see if the 100 day moving average will be able to act as dynamic support, it’s more likely though that 50 day moving average will be respected though in the short term however. One thing that will be paramount is if the market looks to treat this as a head and shoulders pattern also, if we do see another shoulder form I would anticipate the bears looking to wrestle back control, but for now we will have to wait and see on tomorrows result.
The New Zealand dollar has once again found itself flying higher on the charts as it rides on the wave of global optimism in the riskier currencies. Certainly the appetite for commodities has lifted in the wake of recent political events, but also the NZ economy continues to perform strongly in the wake of it all. Expectations with in New Zealand are that inflation has troughed and will be building pressure going into 2018 and pave the way for higher interest rates; at the same time fiscal prudence from the government has reinforced faith from investors.
On the charts the NZDUSD has continued to be an advocate of follow the trend as the bulls have taken complete control recently. Right now the NZDUSD has paused on resistance at 0.7228, however the market is looking very bullish at present and there is potential for further rises to 0.7284. The trend in itself is quite steep though in nature which presents a minor problem, in that the steeper the trend the more likely it is to fail, so traders will be looking for the pivot point to take profit and push the NZDUSD back into the red. For now though traders remain optimistic on the NZ economy and this continues to be seen on the technical’s.