Equity markets have been the major benefactor market movements today with the Dow finally breaking above the 20K mark for the first time. The S&P 500 has also rallied heavily today and is just shy of the magic 2300 mark which I’ve talked about in previous articles – which is of course a big benefactor of the Trump effect which is going through the markets at present. 2017 could very much be the year of the bull, but it will take time and a wait and see approach to see if it all comes true, as it is very much early days for equity markets in the new year. Equity markets in the US still have hurdles to jump through from a fundamental point of view as unemployment claims is due out tomorrow, and consumer sentiment will also be released the following day after that. All of these have the power to impact equity markets sharply, but the spotlight will most certainly fall on anything that Trump has to say at present.
Right now resistance for the S&P 500 is around the 2300 mark, with the market looking to move sharply further higher if given the right opportunities. This key psychological level is likely hold in the short term, but for any movements higher a move to 2350 and 2400 is likely to be the next major levels of resistance in the long run, as it’s very much uncharted territory. Any movements lower are likely to find dynamic support on the 20 day moving average, which continues to trend up with the market and is likely to be the first line of defence of any brave bears do come into the market.
The New Zealand economy has managed to hit rock star economy status as usual, with the CPI figures coming in better than expected at 0.4% Q/Q (0.3% exp). Helping to push the annual figure to 1.3%; still below the 2% mark but nevertheless moving back in the right direction and something the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will have to take into consideration. Many economists are now expecting that the RBNZ will likely hold rates at steady at present as inflation is lifting, and if it continues to do so though then the RBNZ may even be forced to increase the OCR quicker than anticipated.
As previously mentioned the NZDUSD has been very bullish on the charts, and the trend is very much still the markets friend. Expectations still are quite bullish with the results seen today, and with a weaker USD I would expect the NZD to continue to resistance levels at 0.7343 and 0.7402. If it can continue to gather momentum, we could see it breach through the 80 cent level, however the market may look to claw back some gains well before then and the Trump effect on the USD can be quite strong as well.