Daily Technical Outlook October 5-

October 5, 2016

Article by ForexTime

EUR/USD

The single currency was the only major currency to rise against the Dollar despite Deutsche bank fears.

The Euro bulls managed to protect 1.1125 daily support as prices jumped above the 1.1200 handle after finding a low around 1.1138 level. Therefore, the outlook remain slightly positive in the hourly chart and another re-test of 1.1250 barrier is likely in the coming hours. Meanwhile, the daily trend is clearly neutral and we will wait for additional momentum before to confirm the next directional move.

From an intraday perspective, traders should focus on 1.1175 level in the downside and 1.1238 level ahead of U.S ADP figures.

GBP/USD

The Sterling continue to weaken after breaking below 1.2798 low, which represented the lowest level for this year. This breakdown reinforced the negative outlook for the British pound that began following the Brexit decision.

Technically, the pair is bearish in both the daily and the hourly charts, however, the RSI indicator stands at the oversold territory, and an upside correction cannot be ruled out in the near future.

Looking at the wave structure, 1.2617 is considered as the theoretical target completion for the bearish cycle that began from 1.3445 peak, and should give some support to the pair once reached.

As of now, traders are likely to keep selling rallies around 1.2770/85 zone to play a continuation of the main negative trend. In the opposite, only a daily close above 1.2850 will cancel this negative scenario.

AUD/USD

The Aussie lost its bullish momentum in the near-term after the recent downside move in Gold weighed on commodity currencies.

For the time being, the focus should be on the hourly support of 0.7590 as a break below it is likely to trigger another acceleration to the downside in the direction of 0.7555 area.

In the hourly chart, the outlook remain negative below 0.7645 peak and the pair should find strong resistance below this level in the next hours.

USD/CAD

The pair bounced strongly yesterday despite Oil strength as commodity currencies were weak across the board.

From a technical point of view, the pair should remain well supported above 1.3130 low and another wave higher is expected as prices managed to overtake 1.3195resistance level.

If the pair resume its upside momentum, then we will look for resistance around 1.3250 level, from where the pair may stabilize before to continue its advance. In the flipside, a drop below 1.3170 should expose 1.3145/30 zone.

Overall, the pair remain bullish in the daily chart as prices continue to respect the higher low structure that began from 1.3000 psychological support.

USD/JPY

The Japanese Yen weakened against the U.S Dollar since the beginning of this week, as prices failed several time to break below 100.00 major support.

In addition, the pair succeeded to break above the bearish trend line drawn from 104.35 peak and to overtake 102.80 hourly resistance (Post BoJ high), which reinforces a continuation higher in the coming hours in the direction of 103.35/50 resistance zone.

The pair turned bullish in the short-term, and as far as 102.00 low is in place, the preference should be for longs.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand fell sharply after we saw a big rejection from 0.7300 barrier during yesterday’s U.S trading session. The pair showed a head and shoulders reversal pattern in the daily chart, which can extend the sell-off in the coming hours.

The broken neckline was located at 0.7203 level and a pullback to around this level should offer another selling opportunity for bears. The next level of interest stands at 0.7154, which represents the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally seen from 0.6950 low.

Therefore, the outlook is strongly bearish in this pair and the upside momentum should remain limited below 0.7215 peak, while the theoretical target for this formation stands at 0.6930 area.

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