By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly raised their bullish bets for the US dollar last week as the speculative dollar position continues to hover in a small bullish position.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$4.18 billion as of Tuesday July 5th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.17 billion from the +$3.01 billion total long position that was registered on June 28th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar position remains in positive (long) territory for a seventh straight week after being in negative (short) territory for five straight weeks through May 17th. The speculative position includes data through Tuesday and does not take into account Friday’s US jobs report that rose by 287,000 workers.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the Mexican peso (+20,470 weekly change in contracts) and the Australian dollar (+6,855 contracts).
Free Reports:
Also, showing weekly gains were the Japanese yen (+3,818 contracts), Canadian dollar (+3,568 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (+1,423 contracts).
The currencies on the downside of speculative bets versus the dollar were the euro (-13,393 contracts), British pound sterling (-6,320 weekly change in contracts) and the Swiss franc (-2,189 contracts).
Notable changes: The Australian dollar bets crossed back into long territory for the first time since May 24th while euro positions deteriorated to their worst position since March 15th when net positions equaled -77,555 contracts.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | 50714 | 2213 | -37654 | 241 |
| 20160607 | 79538 | 28824 | -67112 | -29458 |
| 20160614 | 70705 | -8833 | -56489 | 10623 |
| 20160621 | 73398 | 2693 | -61346 | -4857 |
| 20160628 | 76653 | 3255 | -61934 | -588 |
| 20160705 | 93750 | 17097 | -75327 | -13393 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | 51984 | -2047 | -32851 | -16 |
| 20160607 | 84439 | 32455 | -66299 | -33448 |
| 20160614 | 58611 | -25828 | -36661 | 29638 |
| 20160621 | 68218 | 9607 | -51947 | -15286 |
| 20160628 | 57040 | -11178 | -42711 | 9236 |
| 20160705 | 66383 | 9343 | -49031 | -6320 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | -13526 | 9509 | 14837 | -7222 |
| 20160607 | -43861 | -30335 | 42853 | 28016 |
| 20160614 | -57384 | -13523 | 55690 | 12837 |
| 20160621 | -56542 | 842 | 52296 | -3394 |
| 20160628 | -58067 | -1525 | 59750 | 7454 |
| 20160705 | -65015 | -6948 | 63568 | 3818 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | 13820 | 2322 | 129 | -3825 |
| 20160607 | 22145 | 8325 | -9645 | -9774 |
| 20160614 | 2031 | -20114 | 7130 | 16775 |
| 20160621 | 783 | -1248 | 6381 | -749 |
| 20160628 | -1641 | -2424 | 10867 | 4486 |
| 20160705 | 628 | 2269 | 8678 | -2189 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | -30322 | -4727 | 26259 | 6212 |
| 20160607 | -29402 | 920 | 21537 | -4722 |
| 20160614 | -40910 | -11508 | 18440 | -3097 |
| 20160621 | -14134 | 26776 | 2595 | -15845 |
| 20160628 | -15439 | -1305 | 7949 | 5354 |
| 20160705 | -18148 | -2709 | 11517 | 3568 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | 8618 | 9223 | -4758 | -4882 |
| 20160607 | 19482 | 10864 | -15808 | -11050 |
| 20160614 | 9618 | -9864 | -6778 | 9030 |
| 20160621 | 6143 | -3475 | -7043 | -265 |
| 20160628 | -1915 | -8058 | -1952 | 5091 |
| 20160705 | -8961 | -7046 | 4903 | 6855 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | -5439 | -1255 | 5504 | 928 |
| 20160607 | -9944 | -4505 | 8536 | 3032 |
| 20160614 | 1538 | 11482 | -3818 | -12354 |
| 20160621 | 814 | -724 | -3045 | 773 |
| 20160628 | 278 | -536 | -2826 | 219 |
| 20160705 | -629 | -907 | -1403 | 1423 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160531 | 58047 | 7919 | -55615 | -8155 |
| 20160607 | 61854 | 3807 | -59309 | -3694 |
| 20160614 | 69064 | 7210 | -65619 | -6310 |
| 20160621 | 73227 | 4163 | -68880 | -3261 |
| 20160628 | 68953 | -4274 | -65327 | 3553 |
| 20160705 | 46879 | -22074 | -44857 | 20470 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com
