Large FX Speculators edged US Dollar net bullish positions higher last week

July 9, 2016

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
zachary storella

US Dollar net speculator positions increased to +$4.18 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly raised their bullish bets for the US dollar last week as the speculative dollar position continues to hover in a small bullish position.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$4.18 billion as of Tuesday July 5th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.17 billion from the +$3.01 billion total long position that was registered on June 28th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar position remains in positive (long) territory for a seventh straight week after being in negative (short) territory for five straight weeks through May 17th. The speculative position includes data through Tuesday and does not take into account Friday’s US jobs report that rose by 287,000 workers.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the Mexican peso (+20,470 weekly change in contracts) and the Australian dollar (+6,855 contracts).


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Also, showing weekly gains were the Japanese yen (+3,818 contracts), Canadian dollar (+3,568 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (+1,423 contracts).

The currencies on the downside of speculative bets versus the dollar were the euro (-13,393 contracts), British pound sterling (-6,320 weekly change in contracts) and the Swiss franc (-2,189 contracts).

Notable changes: The Australian dollar bets crossed back into long territory for the first time since May 24th while euro positions deteriorated to their worst position since March 15th when net positions equaled -77,555 contracts.

Weekly-Spec-Changes-COT zachary storella

This latest COT data is through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO-COT zachary storella

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160531507142213-37654241
201606077953828824-67112-29458
2016061470705-8833-5648910623
20160621733982693-61346-4857
20160628766533255-61934-588
201607059375017097-75327-13393

 

British Pound Sterling:

GBP-Brit-Pound-COT zachary storella

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2016053151984-2047-32851-16
201606078443932455-66299-33448
2016061458611-25828-3666129638
20160621682189607-51947-15286
2016062857040-11178-427119236
20160705663839343-49031-6320

 

Japanese Yen:

zachary storella Japanese-Yen-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160531-13526950914837-7222
20160607-43861-303354285328016
20160614-57384-135235569012837
20160621-5654284252296-3394
20160628-58067-1525597507454
20160705-65015-6948635683818

 

Swiss Franc:

zachary storella CHF-Swiss-Franc-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160531138202322129-3825
20160607221458325-9645-9774
201606142031-20114713016775
20160621783-12486381-749
20160628-1641-2424108674486
2016070562822698678-2189

 

Canadian Dollar:

zachary storella Canadian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160531-30322-4727262596212
20160607-2940292021537-4722
20160614-40910-1150818440-3097
20160621-14134267762595-15845
20160628-15439-130579495354
20160705-18148-2709115173568

 

Australian Dollar:

zachary storella Australian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2016053186189223-4758-4882
201606071948210864-15808-11050
201606149618-9864-67789030
201606216143-3475-7043-265
20160628-1915-8058-19525091
20160705-8961-704649036855

 

New Zealand Dollar:

zachary storella NewZealand-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160531-5439-12555504928
20160607-9944-450585363032
20160614153811482-3818-12354
20160621814-724-3045773
20160628278-536-2826219
20160705-629-907-14031423

 

Mexican Peso:

zachary storella Mexican-Peso-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160531580477919-55615-8155
20160607618543807-59309-3694
20160614690647210-65619-6310
20160621732274163-68880-3261
2016062868953-4274-653273553
2016070546879-22074-4485720470

 

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com