Euro strengthening before ECB meeting

July 21, 2016

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

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The euro”s Wednesday trading closed slightly down. The euro bulls quickly won back losses which were incurred after UK labour market data came out.

High intraday volatility continued “til trade close in the States. As a result a daily pinbar formed. Although the dark shade of the candle was small, it was a bullish signal. If Draghi doesn”t quash the euro, it will come off today.

Market Expectations:

The euro was up to 1.1043 against the dollar in Asia. Since yesterday”s 1.1030 maximum was exceeded, a bull signal was activated in accordance with the pinbar. The target on it is 1.1080.

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I didn”t bother with a forecast due to the ECB convening and taking a decision on interest rates. In addition, at 15:30 EET, Mario Draghi will hold a press conference. He is unpredictable, so I don”t see the point in making a forecast.

Day”s News (EET):

  • 11:30, UK retail sales and net state borrowing in June;
  • 14:15, ECB interest rate;
  • 15:30, Draghi”s press conference, US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June and US initial unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 17th July;
  • 17:00, US secondary housing market sales in June and US June index for leading indicators from the Conference Board.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: n/a, maximum: n/a, close: n/a.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The trend line which took its beginning from a 1.1148 peak has been broken in Asia on the hourly. The LB and the 45th Gann degree have also been passed. Taking into account that a daily pinbar formed yesterday, it would be logical to think that the euro will strengthen to around 1.1080 today.

The graph is without a forecast. I don”t want to guess where the euro will be during Draghi”s speech. The market expects that the monetary policy of the ECB will be left unchanged. If There are no surprises at the press conference, the euro will strengthen against the dollar.

Article submitted by Alpari.com

8 years ago