UK cabinet reshuffle leaves markets volatile

July 13, 2016

Article by ForexTime

It has been a bumpy ride for the cable in early morning trading on the Asian markets as the new cabinet has been announced and market favourite George Osborne has resigned from politic all together after being sacked from the Chancellor of the Exchequer position that he has held for the last four years. This has come as a minor surprise given that most people felt he was a prudent chancellor, but the same time his unpopularity caught up with him and with the new government in play that is pro Brexit, it seemed unlikely he would be able to stay afloat. On top of this tomorrow heralds the Bank of England meeting and 76% of analysts and economists surveyed expect a drop in the lending rate by 25 basis points. What will also be important is the following speech by Carney where he is expected to outline expectations surrounding the economy as of late.

For the GBPUSD the rise to formality has been a burden and a blessing, as traders seek safety they have been so far turned up when it comes to the GBPUSD in the wake of the fundamental changes at hand. So far the GBPUSD has pushed up to resistance at 1.3304 The push back lower here will have some traders and bears looking to take another swipe as the lead up the Brexit looks all the more on the cards in the long run with Theresa May in charge. Any push lower from here is likely to find support at 1.2795 and will be very interesting to see if the market takes a breather here, or keeps on trucking.

Oil prices have been stunned globally yet again, as the drawdown from the US oil inventory was weaker than expected coming in at -2.55M (exp -2.898M). For many the possibility of a spread of the Brexit has weighed heavily on global consumption as business has so far held back in investment as they wait for the dust to settle. The drop from today was an entire dollar and this all adds up in the long when it comes to investment planning.

On the charts Oil continues to swing towards lower lows and this likely to continue in the long as the market looks for some form of momentum and at this stage from a global standpoint, investors are always looking for higher returns and Oil has certainly has one (if supplied with the right equipment). So far support at 44.41 is holding up against any movement, and the next level of resistance is at 45.83.

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