By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to increase their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar last week as speculative positions rose to the highest level in approximately four months.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$11.30 billion as of Tuesday June 7th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$6.44 billion from the +$4.86 billion total short position that was registered on May 31st, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last’s week gain showed that speculative bets have increased for five straight weeks and brings the US dollar speculator position to its highest level since February 9th when total positions equaled +$12.60 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the only two currencies to improve against the US dollar were the Japanese yen (+28,016 weekly change in contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (+3,032 contracts). The yen shook off six straight weeks of decline before last week’s gain while the New Zealand dollar rose for a second week.
Free Reports:
Currencies whose speculative net positions declined last week were led by the British pound sterling (-33,448 weekly change in contracts), the euro (-29,458 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-11,050 contracts).
The Swiss franc (-9,774 change in weekly contracts), the Mexican peso (-3,694 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-4,722 contracts) also saw falling weekly speculative positions.
British pound sterling and euro positions were sharply sold off as investors are likely reducing their exposures to risk in anticipation of the Brexit referendum coming up very soon on Thursday, June 23rd.
Other notable changes showed that Australian dollar positions fell for a sixth straight week and remained in a bearish net position for a second straight week.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | 27558 | -17168 | -23619 | 16048 |
| 20160510 | 29484 | 1926 | -21872 | 1747 |
| 20160517 | 34116 | 4632 | -22587 | -715 |
| 20160524 | 48501 | 14385 | -37895 | -15308 |
| 20160531 | 50714 | 2213 | -37654 | 241 |
| 20160607 | 79538 | 28824 | -67112 | -29458 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | 56878 | -10728 | -40408 | 8261 |
| 20160510 | 55022 | -1856 | -34935 | 5473 |
| 20160517 | 60935 | 5913 | -38422 | -3487 |
| 20160524 | 54031 | -6904 | -32835 | 5587 |
| 20160531 | 51984 | -2047 | -32851 | -16 |
| 20160607 | 84439 | 32455 | -66299 | -33448 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | -65495 | 2190 | 61521 | -4977 |
| 20160510 | -63294 | 2201 | 59047 | -2474 |
| 20160517 | -62439 | 855 | 58919 | -128 |
| 20160524 | -23035 | 39404 | 22059 | -36860 |
| 20160531 | -13526 | 9509 | 14837 | -7222 |
| 20160607 | -43861 | -30335 | 42853 | 28016 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | -4870 | -206 | 6829 | -2436 |
| 20160510 | -978 | 3892 | 6917 | 88 |
| 20160517 | 4440 | 5418 | 4147 | -2770 |
| 20160524 | 11498 | 7058 | 3954 | -193 |
| 20160531 | 13820 | 2322 | 129 | -3825 |
| 20160607 | 22145 | 8325 | -9645 | -9774 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | -30745 | -5061 | 18943 | 6944 |
| 20160510 | -33890 | -3145 | 25874 | 6931 |
| 20160517 | -33527 | 363 | 22706 | -3168 |
| 20160524 | -25595 | 7932 | 20047 | -2659 |
| 20160531 | -30322 | -4727 | 26259 | 6212 |
| 20160607 | -29402 | 920 | 21537 | -4722 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | -58577 | 9893 | 52395 | -7145 |
| 20160510 | -42718 | 15859 | 38158 | -14237 |
| 20160517 | -26088 | 16630 | 24893 | -13265 |
| 20160524 | -605 | 25483 | 124 | -24769 |
| 20160531 | 8618 | 9223 | -4758 | -4882 |
| 20160607 | 19482 | 10864 | -15808 | -11050 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | -10543 | -1170 | 9200 | 1816 |
| 20160510 | -9689 | 854 | 9352 | 152 |
| 20160517 | -6825 | 2864 | 6688 | -2664 |
| 20160524 | -4184 | 2641 | 4576 | -2112 |
| 20160531 | -5439 | -1255 | 5504 | 928 |
| 20160607 | -9944 | -4505 | 8536 | 3032 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160503 | 12550 | -6794 | -12420 | 6895 |
| 20160510 | 47903 | 35353 | -45220 | -32800 |
| 20160517 | 48932 | 1029 | -45691 | -471 |
| 20160524 | 50128 | 1196 | -47460 | -1769 |
| 20160531 | 58047 | 7919 | -55615 | -8155 |
| 20160607 | 61854 | 3807 | -59309 | -3694 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com
