By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators decreased their aggregate futures positions in the US dollar last week for a fourth straight week. Large speculator contracts for the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar rose the most last week while euro and Japanese yen positions both increased for a second week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an aggregate US dollar long position totaling $4.65 billion as of Tuesday March 29th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.26 billion from the $5.91 billion total long position that was registered on March 22nd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar speculative position is now at its lowest level since May 13th 2014 when total positions equaled $4.51 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the Canadian dollar (+8,829 contracts) and the Australian dollar (+5,436 contracts). Canadian dollar positions have now improved for nine consecutive weeks and have come back from a strongly bearish position (-66,819 net contracts on January 26th) to a slightly bearish current level at -6,180 net contracts. The Australian dollar speculative positions gained for a second week and have now been on the long side since February 16th.
Free Reports:
Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning gains were the euro (+2,242 change in weekly contracts), Japanese yen (+1,041 contracts), Swiss franc (+461 contracts), New Zealand dollar (+857 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (+4,900 contracts).
The only currency whose speculative net positions fell last week was the British pound sterling (-2,305 change in weekly contracts).
This latest COT data is through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) and small speculators were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will fall versus the dollar.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | 53527 | -237 | -46857 | 1348 |
| 20160301 | 86498 | 32971 | -68541 | -21684 |
| 20160308 | 89999 | 3501 | -71907 | -3366 |
| 20160315 | 87813 | -2186 | -77555 | -5648 |
| 20160322 | 73024 | -14789 | -66053 | 11502 |
| 20160329 | 67351 | -5673 | -63811 | 2242 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | 52788 | -4771 | -33068 | 3187 |
| 20160301 | 62384 | 9596 | -39378 | -6310 |
| 20160308 | 72682 | 10298 | -49005 | -9627 |
| 20160315 | 38929 | -33753 | -13619 | 35386 |
| 20160322 | 59790 | 20861 | -37723 | -24104 |
| 20160329 | 60506 | 716 | -40028 | -2305 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | -57242 | -5783 | 52734 | 4833 |
| 20160301 | -58622 | -1380 | 59625 | 6891 |
| 20160308 | -65310 | -6688 | 64333 | 4708 |
| 20160315 | -46976 | 18334 | 45489 | -18844 |
| 20160322 | -57511 | -10535 | 53346 | 7857 |
| 20160329 | -59963 | -2452 | 54387 | 1041 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | 13874 | 1816 | -2321 | 2045 |
| 20160301 | 14501 | 627 | -1507 | 814 |
| 20160308 | 13520 | -981 | -129 | 1378 |
| 20160315 | 6816 | -6704 | 5262 | 5391 |
| 20160322 | 5021 | -1795 | 4186 | -1076 |
| 20160329 | 3151 | -1870 | 4647 | 461 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | 43501 | -8886 | -36940 | 8145 |
| 20160301 | 37575 | -5926 | -30478 | 6462 |
| 20160308 | 27220 | -10355 | -25781 | 4697 |
| 20160315 | 17153 | -10067 | -16826 | 8955 |
| 20160322 | 9659 | -7494 | -15009 | 1817 |
| 20160329 | 3659 | -6000 | -6180 | 8829 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | -4593 | -9901 | 9575 | 6768 |
| 20160301 | -10617 | -6024 | 16861 | 7286 |
| 20160308 | -33359 | -22742 | 29195 | 12334 |
| 20160315 | -22868 | 10491 | 12782 | -16413 |
| 20160322 | -31481 | -8613 | 18030 | 5248 |
| 20160329 | -35765 | -4284 | 23466 | 5436 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | 7595 | -2271 | -6615 | 1702 |
| 20160301 | 5886 | -1709 | -4157 | 2458 |
| 20160308 | 2225 | -3661 | -2000 | 2157 |
| 20160315 | 285 | -1940 | 1290 | 3290 |
| 20160322 | -1453 | -1738 | 1017 | -273 |
| 20160329 | -1657 | -204 | 1874 | 857 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160223 | 57318 | -25277 | -52859 | 24526 |
| 20160301 | 59837 | 2519 | -56473 | -3614 |
| 20160308 | 60689 | 852 | -57554 | -1081 |
| 20160315 | 46985 | -13704 | -45037 | 12517 |
| 20160322 | 45991 | -994 | -45696 | -659 |
| 20160329 | 41861 | -4130 | -40796 | 4900 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com
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