Article by ForexTime

The focus this week will be on PMI data for March, which will provide a complete picture of economic conditions during the first quarter as a whole.

The release of PMI, factory orders and trade data will be closely monitored by monetary policy makers in Washington for signs that the US economy is ready for a further rate hike later in the year. Following a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Yellen stated that the bank would proceed “cautiously” with rate increases.

Traders are now only placing a 40% likelihood of a rate rise in July, down from 51% before the speech.
From the US, factory orders and trade data are likely to add to the policy debate. Weak data would mean that the US is currently going through its worst growth spell for three-and-a-half years and would clearly be an argument to postpone any future rate hikes.

The UK meanwhile sees the release of industrial production figures and PMI results for the construction and service sectors. These data releases would provide the Bank of England with valuable information on the health of the UK economy in the first quarter

Retail sales data are also out in the Eurozone this week. Eurostat reported a stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in January, but both PMI data and consumer confidence numbers have been weak in recent months, so it remains to be seen whether the positive trend in retail sales has held up in February.

Article by ForexTime

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