Euro/Dollar: Expected Consolidation by Balance Line

By Vladislav Antonov, Alpari

Yesterday’s Trading:

Monday saw the euro/dollar reaching for the support at around 1.0800. The correction was 38.2% from the growth from 1.0518 to 1.0980. The calendar was empty, so the price easily returned to the balance line at 1.0859.

Main news of the day (EET):

• 11:30, UK industrial manufacturing and production in the manufacturing sector for October;
• 12:00 Eurozone Q3 GDP;
• 15:15, Canadian new housing orders for November and construction permits for October;
• 17:00, US job vacancies and labour turnover for October. UK GDP from NIESR for November;
• 19:50, Bank of Canada’s Poloz to speak.

Market Expectations:

Trader attention on Tuesday will be focussed on UK and Eurozone data. However, it’s the upcoming FOMC meeting that will set the scene on the market. The futures market assesses the likelihood of a US rate rise at around 80%. The market has already taken a rise into account, so it makes more sense to expect a consolidation at the levels reached (a wide flat) on the key pairs.

Technical Analysis:

• Intraday target maximum: 1.0890, minimum: 1.0829 (current Asian), close: 1.0868;
• Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading near the LB at 1.0849. The day closed above 1.0807, so I expect we’ll see a test of 1.0890. The falling price of oil and gold will impact the euro and so in the second half of the day I reckon we will see a rebound from 1.0890.